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Early warning systems (EWSs) for chikungunya, dengue, malaria, yellow fever, and Zika outbreaks: What is the evidence? A scoping review

BACKGROUND: Early warning systems (EWSs) are of increasing importance in the context of outbreak-prone diseases such as chikungunya, dengue, malaria, yellow fever, and Zika. A scoping review has been undertaken for all 5 diseases to summarize existing evidence of EWS tools in terms of their structur...

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Autores principales: Hussain-Alkhateeb, Laith, Rivera Ramírez, Tatiana, Kroeger, Axel, Gozzer, Ernesto, Runge-Ranzinger, Silvia
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8445439/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34529649
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009686
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author Hussain-Alkhateeb, Laith
Rivera Ramírez, Tatiana
Kroeger, Axel
Gozzer, Ernesto
Runge-Ranzinger, Silvia
author_facet Hussain-Alkhateeb, Laith
Rivera Ramírez, Tatiana
Kroeger, Axel
Gozzer, Ernesto
Runge-Ranzinger, Silvia
author_sort Hussain-Alkhateeb, Laith
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: Early warning systems (EWSs) are of increasing importance in the context of outbreak-prone diseases such as chikungunya, dengue, malaria, yellow fever, and Zika. A scoping review has been undertaken for all 5 diseases to summarize existing evidence of EWS tools in terms of their structural and statistical designs, feasibility of integration and implementation into national surveillance programs, and the users’ perspective of their applications. METHODS: Data were extracted from Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (CDSR), Google Scholar, Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature (LILACS), PubMed, Web of Science, and WHO Library Database (WHOLIS) databases until August 2019. Included were studies reporting on (a) experiences with existing EWS, including implemented tools; and (b) the development or implementation of EWS in a particular setting. No restrictions were applied regarding year of publication, language or geographical area. FINDINGS: Through the first screening, 11,710 documents for dengue, 2,757 for Zika, 2,706 for chikungunya, 24,611 for malaria, and 4,963 for yellow fever were identified. After applying the selection criteria, a total of 37 studies were included in this review. Key findings were the following: (1) a large number of studies showed the quality performance of their prediction models but except for dengue outbreaks, only few presented statistical prediction validity of EWS; (2) while entomological, epidemiological, and social media alarm indicators are potentially useful for outbreak warning, almost all studies focus primarily or exclusively on meteorological indicators, which tends to limit the prediction capacity; (3) no assessment of the integration of the EWS into a routine surveillance system could be found, and only few studies addressed the users’ perspective of the tool; (4) almost all EWS tools require highly skilled users with advanced statistics; and (5) spatial prediction remains a limitation with no tool currently able to map high transmission areas at small spatial level. CONCLUSIONS: In view of the escalating infectious diseases as global threats, gaps and challenges are significantly present within the EWS applications. While some advanced EWS showed high prediction abilities, the scarcity of tool assessments in terms of integration into existing national surveillance systems as well as of the feasibility of transforming model outputs into local vector control or action plans tends to limit in most cases the support of countries in controlling disease outbreaks.
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spelling pubmed-84454392021-09-17 Early warning systems (EWSs) for chikungunya, dengue, malaria, yellow fever, and Zika outbreaks: What is the evidence? A scoping review Hussain-Alkhateeb, Laith Rivera Ramírez, Tatiana Kroeger, Axel Gozzer, Ernesto Runge-Ranzinger, Silvia PLoS Negl Trop Dis Review BACKGROUND: Early warning systems (EWSs) are of increasing importance in the context of outbreak-prone diseases such as chikungunya, dengue, malaria, yellow fever, and Zika. A scoping review has been undertaken for all 5 diseases to summarize existing evidence of EWS tools in terms of their structural and statistical designs, feasibility of integration and implementation into national surveillance programs, and the users’ perspective of their applications. METHODS: Data were extracted from Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (CDSR), Google Scholar, Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature (LILACS), PubMed, Web of Science, and WHO Library Database (WHOLIS) databases until August 2019. Included were studies reporting on (a) experiences with existing EWS, including implemented tools; and (b) the development or implementation of EWS in a particular setting. No restrictions were applied regarding year of publication, language or geographical area. FINDINGS: Through the first screening, 11,710 documents for dengue, 2,757 for Zika, 2,706 for chikungunya, 24,611 for malaria, and 4,963 for yellow fever were identified. After applying the selection criteria, a total of 37 studies were included in this review. Key findings were the following: (1) a large number of studies showed the quality performance of their prediction models but except for dengue outbreaks, only few presented statistical prediction validity of EWS; (2) while entomological, epidemiological, and social media alarm indicators are potentially useful for outbreak warning, almost all studies focus primarily or exclusively on meteorological indicators, which tends to limit the prediction capacity; (3) no assessment of the integration of the EWS into a routine surveillance system could be found, and only few studies addressed the users’ perspective of the tool; (4) almost all EWS tools require highly skilled users with advanced statistics; and (5) spatial prediction remains a limitation with no tool currently able to map high transmission areas at small spatial level. CONCLUSIONS: In view of the escalating infectious diseases as global threats, gaps and challenges are significantly present within the EWS applications. While some advanced EWS showed high prediction abilities, the scarcity of tool assessments in terms of integration into existing national surveillance systems as well as of the feasibility of transforming model outputs into local vector control or action plans tends to limit in most cases the support of countries in controlling disease outbreaks. Public Library of Science 2021-09-16 /pmc/articles/PMC8445439/ /pubmed/34529649 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009686 Text en © 2021 Hussain-Alkhateeb et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Review
Hussain-Alkhateeb, Laith
Rivera Ramírez, Tatiana
Kroeger, Axel
Gozzer, Ernesto
Runge-Ranzinger, Silvia
Early warning systems (EWSs) for chikungunya, dengue, malaria, yellow fever, and Zika outbreaks: What is the evidence? A scoping review
title Early warning systems (EWSs) for chikungunya, dengue, malaria, yellow fever, and Zika outbreaks: What is the evidence? A scoping review
title_full Early warning systems (EWSs) for chikungunya, dengue, malaria, yellow fever, and Zika outbreaks: What is the evidence? A scoping review
title_fullStr Early warning systems (EWSs) for chikungunya, dengue, malaria, yellow fever, and Zika outbreaks: What is the evidence? A scoping review
title_full_unstemmed Early warning systems (EWSs) for chikungunya, dengue, malaria, yellow fever, and Zika outbreaks: What is the evidence? A scoping review
title_short Early warning systems (EWSs) for chikungunya, dengue, malaria, yellow fever, and Zika outbreaks: What is the evidence? A scoping review
title_sort early warning systems (ewss) for chikungunya, dengue, malaria, yellow fever, and zika outbreaks: what is the evidence? a scoping review
topic Review
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8445439/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34529649
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009686
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