Prediction of serosal invasion in gastric cancer: development and validation of multivariate models integrating preoperative clinicopathological features and radiographic findings based on late arterial phase CT images

BACKGROUND: To develop and validate multivariate models integrating endoscopic biopsy, tumor markers, and CT findings based on late arterial phase (LAP) to predict serosal invasion in gastric cancer (GC). METHODS: The preoperative differentiation degree, tumor markers, CT morphological characteristics, and CT value-related and texture parameters of 154 patients with GC were analyzed retrospectively. Multivariate models based on regression analysis and machine learning algorithms were performed to improve the diagnostic efficacy. RESULTS: The differentiation degree, carbohydrate antigen (CA) 199, CA724, CA242, and multiple CT findings based on LAP differed significantly between T1–3 and T4 GCs in the primary cohort (all P < 0.05). Multivariate models based on regression analysis and random forest achieved AUCs of 0.849 and 0.865 in the primary cohort, respectively. CONCLUSION: We developed and validated multivariate models integrating endoscopic biopsy, tumor markers, CT morphological characteristics, and CT value-related and texture parameters to predict serosal invasion in GCs and achieved favorable performance. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-021-08672-0.