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Impact of interventions on the incidence of natural focal diseases during the outbreak of COVID-19 in Jiangsu Province, China

BACKGROUND: During the period of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak, strong intervention measures, such as lockdown, travel restriction, and suspension of work and production, may have curbed the spread of other infectious diseases, including natural focal diseases. In this study, we a...

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Autores principales: Cheng, Xiaoqing, Hu, Jianli, Luo, Li, Zhao, Zeyu, Zhang, Nan, Hannah, Mikah Ngwanguong, Rui, Jia, Lin, Shengnan, Zhu, Yuanzhao, Wang, Yao, Yang, Meng, Xu, Jingwen, Liu, Xingchun, Yang, Tianlong, Liu, Weikang, Li, Peihua, Deng, Bin, Li, Zhuoyang, Liu, Chan, Huang, Jiefeng, Peng, Zhihang, Bao, Changjun, Chen, Tianmu
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: BioMed Central 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8449989/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34538265
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13071-021-04986-x
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author Cheng, Xiaoqing
Hu, Jianli
Luo, Li
Zhao, Zeyu
Zhang, Nan
Hannah, Mikah Ngwanguong
Rui, Jia
Lin, Shengnan
Zhu, Yuanzhao
Wang, Yao
Yang, Meng
Xu, Jingwen
Liu, Xingchun
Yang, Tianlong
Liu, Weikang
Li, Peihua
Deng, Bin
Li, Zhuoyang
Liu, Chan
Huang, Jiefeng
Peng, Zhihang
Bao, Changjun
Chen, Tianmu
author_facet Cheng, Xiaoqing
Hu, Jianli
Luo, Li
Zhao, Zeyu
Zhang, Nan
Hannah, Mikah Ngwanguong
Rui, Jia
Lin, Shengnan
Zhu, Yuanzhao
Wang, Yao
Yang, Meng
Xu, Jingwen
Liu, Xingchun
Yang, Tianlong
Liu, Weikang
Li, Peihua
Deng, Bin
Li, Zhuoyang
Liu, Chan
Huang, Jiefeng
Peng, Zhihang
Bao, Changjun
Chen, Tianmu
author_sort Cheng, Xiaoqing
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: During the period of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak, strong intervention measures, such as lockdown, travel restriction, and suspension of work and production, may have curbed the spread of other infectious diseases, including natural focal diseases. In this study, we aimed to study the impact of COVID-19 prevention and control measures on the reported incidence of natural focal diseases (brucellosis, malaria, hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome [HFRS], dengue, severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome [SFTS], rabies, tsutsugamushi and Japanese encephalitis [JE]). METHODS: The data on daily COVID-19 confirmed cases and natural focal disease cases were collected from Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Jiangsu Provincial CDC). We described and compared the difference between the incidence in 2020 and the incidence in 2015–2019 in four aspects: trend in reported incidence, age, sex, and urban and rural distribution. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) (p, d, q) × (P, D, Q)(s) model was adopted for natural focal diseases, malaria and severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS), and an ARIMA (p, d, q) model was adopted for dengue. Nonparametric tests were used to compare the reported and the predicted incidence in 2020, the incidence in 2020 and the previous 4 years, and the difference between the duration from illness onset date to diagnosed date (DID) in 2020 and in the previous 4 years. The determination coefficient (R(2)) was used to evaluate the goodness of fit of the model simulation. RESULTS: Natural focal diseases in Jiangsu Province showed a long-term seasonal trend. The reported incidence of natural focal diseases, malaria and dengue in 2020 was lower than the predicted incidence, and the difference was statistically significant (P < 0.05). The reported incidence of brucellosis in July, August, October and November 2020, and SFTS in May to November 2020 was higher than that in the same period in the previous 4 years (P < 0.05). The reported incidence of malaria in April to December 2020, HFRS in March, May and December 2020, and dengue in July to November 2020 was lower than that in the same period in the previous 4 years (P < 0.05). In males, the reported incidence of malaria in 2020 was lower than that in the previous 4 years, and the reported incidence of dengue in 2020 was lower than that in 2017–2019. The reported incidence of malaria in the 20–60-year age group was lower than that in the previous 4 years; the reported incidence of dengue in the 40–60-year age group was lower than that in 2016–2018. The reported cases of malaria in both urban and rural areas were lower than in the previous 4 years. The DID of brucellosis and SFTS in 2020 was shorter than that in 2015–2018; the DID of tsutsugamushi in 2020 was shorter than that in the previous 4 years. CONCLUSIONS: Interventions for COVID-19 may help control the epidemics of natural focal diseases in Jiangsu Province. The reported incidence of natural focal diseases, especially malaria and dengue, decreased during the outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020. COVID-19 prevention and control measures had the greatest impact on the reported incidence of natural focal diseases in males and people in the 20–60-year age group. GRAPHICAL ABSTRACT: [Image: see text]
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spelling pubmed-84499892021-09-20 Impact of interventions on the incidence of natural focal diseases during the outbreak of COVID-19 in Jiangsu Province, China Cheng, Xiaoqing Hu, Jianli Luo, Li Zhao, Zeyu Zhang, Nan Hannah, Mikah Ngwanguong Rui, Jia Lin, Shengnan Zhu, Yuanzhao Wang, Yao Yang, Meng Xu, Jingwen Liu, Xingchun Yang, Tianlong Liu, Weikang Li, Peihua Deng, Bin Li, Zhuoyang Liu, Chan Huang, Jiefeng Peng, Zhihang Bao, Changjun Chen, Tianmu Parasit Vectors Research BACKGROUND: During the period of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak, strong intervention measures, such as lockdown, travel restriction, and suspension of work and production, may have curbed the spread of other infectious diseases, including natural focal diseases. In this study, we aimed to study the impact of COVID-19 prevention and control measures on the reported incidence of natural focal diseases (brucellosis, malaria, hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome [HFRS], dengue, severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome [SFTS], rabies, tsutsugamushi and Japanese encephalitis [JE]). METHODS: The data on daily COVID-19 confirmed cases and natural focal disease cases were collected from Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Jiangsu Provincial CDC). We described and compared the difference between the incidence in 2020 and the incidence in 2015–2019 in four aspects: trend in reported incidence, age, sex, and urban and rural distribution. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) (p, d, q) × (P, D, Q)(s) model was adopted for natural focal diseases, malaria and severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS), and an ARIMA (p, d, q) model was adopted for dengue. Nonparametric tests were used to compare the reported and the predicted incidence in 2020, the incidence in 2020 and the previous 4 years, and the difference between the duration from illness onset date to diagnosed date (DID) in 2020 and in the previous 4 years. The determination coefficient (R(2)) was used to evaluate the goodness of fit of the model simulation. RESULTS: Natural focal diseases in Jiangsu Province showed a long-term seasonal trend. The reported incidence of natural focal diseases, malaria and dengue in 2020 was lower than the predicted incidence, and the difference was statistically significant (P < 0.05). The reported incidence of brucellosis in July, August, October and November 2020, and SFTS in May to November 2020 was higher than that in the same period in the previous 4 years (P < 0.05). The reported incidence of malaria in April to December 2020, HFRS in March, May and December 2020, and dengue in July to November 2020 was lower than that in the same period in the previous 4 years (P < 0.05). In males, the reported incidence of malaria in 2020 was lower than that in the previous 4 years, and the reported incidence of dengue in 2020 was lower than that in 2017–2019. The reported incidence of malaria in the 20–60-year age group was lower than that in the previous 4 years; the reported incidence of dengue in the 40–60-year age group was lower than that in 2016–2018. The reported cases of malaria in both urban and rural areas were lower than in the previous 4 years. The DID of brucellosis and SFTS in 2020 was shorter than that in 2015–2018; the DID of tsutsugamushi in 2020 was shorter than that in the previous 4 years. CONCLUSIONS: Interventions for COVID-19 may help control the epidemics of natural focal diseases in Jiangsu Province. The reported incidence of natural focal diseases, especially malaria and dengue, decreased during the outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020. COVID-19 prevention and control measures had the greatest impact on the reported incidence of natural focal diseases in males and people in the 20–60-year age group. GRAPHICAL ABSTRACT: [Image: see text] BioMed Central 2021-09-19 /pmc/articles/PMC8449989/ /pubmed/34538265 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13071-021-04986-x Text en © The Author(s) 2021 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) ) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data.
spellingShingle Research
Cheng, Xiaoqing
Hu, Jianli
Luo, Li
Zhao, Zeyu
Zhang, Nan
Hannah, Mikah Ngwanguong
Rui, Jia
Lin, Shengnan
Zhu, Yuanzhao
Wang, Yao
Yang, Meng
Xu, Jingwen
Liu, Xingchun
Yang, Tianlong
Liu, Weikang
Li, Peihua
Deng, Bin
Li, Zhuoyang
Liu, Chan
Huang, Jiefeng
Peng, Zhihang
Bao, Changjun
Chen, Tianmu
Impact of interventions on the incidence of natural focal diseases during the outbreak of COVID-19 in Jiangsu Province, China
title Impact of interventions on the incidence of natural focal diseases during the outbreak of COVID-19 in Jiangsu Province, China
title_full Impact of interventions on the incidence of natural focal diseases during the outbreak of COVID-19 in Jiangsu Province, China
title_fullStr Impact of interventions on the incidence of natural focal diseases during the outbreak of COVID-19 in Jiangsu Province, China
title_full_unstemmed Impact of interventions on the incidence of natural focal diseases during the outbreak of COVID-19 in Jiangsu Province, China
title_short Impact of interventions on the incidence of natural focal diseases during the outbreak of COVID-19 in Jiangsu Province, China
title_sort impact of interventions on the incidence of natural focal diseases during the outbreak of covid-19 in jiangsu province, china
topic Research
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8449989/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34538265
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13071-021-04986-x
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