Results of Serosurveillance and Forecasting the Third Wave of COVID-19 in an Industrial District in India

Prevalence of immunoglobulin G (IgG) severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antibodies in the industrial district of East Singhbhum (Jharkhand, India) from July, August, November, and December 2020 and January 2021 after the first wave and in July 2021 after the second wave of coronavirus disease 2021 (COVID-19) infections may be utilized to find the possibility of a third wave of COVID-19 infections. Based on the trend of the loss of protective IgG antibodies after the first wave and the seropositivity of 75% in the district in July 2021, simple forecasting and proportional estimates of the seropositivity in the next eight months and the estimated maximum number of the cases was done. We also considered the seropositivity without vaccination in July 2021 (63%). Additionally, the trend of the weekly RT-PCR and rapid antigen testing for SARS-CoV-2 may also preemptively predict an imminent wave. Based on the East Singhbhum population and the vaccination coverage with at least one dose till July 2021 (Covishield or Covaxin), it is estimated that a 4-5% monthly vaccination coverage rate of new individuals will not allow the seropositivity to fall below 50% and hold at bay a major wave. Vaccination coverage of 3% or less would allow a continuous drop in acquired immunity in the district and can potentially cause a rise in cases, making the community susceptible to a future surge of infections. A 3-5% vaccination rate of new individuals is unlikely to see a drop in the community seropositivity below 50% and the number of new cases of COVID-19 infections going above 478 to 712 per month at least till March 2022. The assumptions are based on presuming that there will be no new mutant of SARS-CoV-2 that escapes the immunity provided by previous infection or vaccination over the next eight months. However, currently, there is no evidence to speculate on any new variant of concern causing a major wave globally. The B.1.617.2 (delta) variant was first identified in October 2020 and there was a lag of six months to the second surge of COVID-19 infections in East Singhbhum, primarily caused by this variant. Additionally, 3% and above, with a rising weekly trend of reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) positivity for SARS-CoV-2 can provide at least four to eight weeks advance warning before the peak of the wave if an imminent future wave is impending.