Temporal transition of racial/ethnic disparities in COVID-19 outcomes in 3108 counties of the United States: Three phases from January to December 2020

Early studies reported higher risk of COVID-19 outcomes for racial/ethnic minorities in the early phase of the pandemic in the United States. While the initial surge of COVID-19 was concentrated in some areas, COVID-19 became pervasive across the entire continent with high impacts in the northern region and central region in the end of 2020. With this geographical transition, we aim to investigate patterns of these racial/ethnic disparities over time. We assessed associations of percentage of race/ethnic minorities and racial segregation indexes with COVID-19 case and mortality rates in 3108 counties of the continental United States during the pandemic's early phase, second, and third phase (January 21–June 15, June 16–August 31, and September 1–December 18, 2020, respectively). We adjusted for population density, age, and sex. We tested whether time-varying associations were consistent across climate regions and explained by socioeconomic variables. In the early phase, counties with higher percentage of Black/African Americans and higher Black-White segregation had higher COVID-19 case and mortality rates. These associations decreased over time and reversed in the third phase. Associations between Hispanic and COVID-19 outcomes were positive in all periods, but more so early in the pandemic. Higher COVID-19 case rates for counties with higher non-Hispanic White population emerged in the third phase. These trends were similar across climate regions, and socioeconomic variables did not explain these trends. In summary, county-level racial/ethnic disparities of COVID-19 are not stationary but change over the course of the pandemic, suggesting complex social, cultural, and political influences.