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Variant-specific interventions to slow down replacement and prevent outbreaks
Emergency and establishment of variants of concern (VOC) impose significant challenges for the COVID-19 pandemic control specially when a large portion of the population has not been fully vaccinated. Here we develop a mathematical model and utilize this model to examine the impact of non pharmaceut...
Autores principales: | , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Published by Elsevier Inc.
2022
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8452136/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34547362 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2021.108703 |
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author | Majeed, Bushra Tosato, Marco Wu, Jianhong |
author_facet | Majeed, Bushra Tosato, Marco Wu, Jianhong |
author_sort | Majeed, Bushra |
collection | PubMed |
description | Emergency and establishment of variants of concern (VOC) impose significant challenges for the COVID-19 pandemic control specially when a large portion of the population has not been fully vaccinated. Here we develop a mathematical model and utilize this model to examine the impact of non pharmaceutical interventions, including the COVID-test (PCR, antigen and antibody test) and whole genome sequencing (WGS) test capacity and contact tracing and quarantine strength, on the VOC-induced epidemic wave. We point out the undesirable and unexpected effect of lukewarm tracing and quarantine that can potentially increase the VOC-cases at the outbreak peak time, and we demonstrate the significance of strain-specific interventions to either prevent a VOC-induced outbreak, or to mitigate the epidemic wave when this outbreak is unavoidable. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8452136 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | Published by Elsevier Inc. |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-84521362021-09-21 Variant-specific interventions to slow down replacement and prevent outbreaks Majeed, Bushra Tosato, Marco Wu, Jianhong Math Biosci Original Research Article Emergency and establishment of variants of concern (VOC) impose significant challenges for the COVID-19 pandemic control specially when a large portion of the population has not been fully vaccinated. Here we develop a mathematical model and utilize this model to examine the impact of non pharmaceutical interventions, including the COVID-test (PCR, antigen and antibody test) and whole genome sequencing (WGS) test capacity and contact tracing and quarantine strength, on the VOC-induced epidemic wave. We point out the undesirable and unexpected effect of lukewarm tracing and quarantine that can potentially increase the VOC-cases at the outbreak peak time, and we demonstrate the significance of strain-specific interventions to either prevent a VOC-induced outbreak, or to mitigate the epidemic wave when this outbreak is unavoidable. Published by Elsevier Inc. 2022-01 2021-09-20 /pmc/articles/PMC8452136/ /pubmed/34547362 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2021.108703 Text en © 2021 Published by Elsevier Inc. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active. |
spellingShingle | Original Research Article Majeed, Bushra Tosato, Marco Wu, Jianhong Variant-specific interventions to slow down replacement and prevent outbreaks |
title | Variant-specific interventions to slow down replacement and prevent outbreaks |
title_full | Variant-specific interventions to slow down replacement and prevent outbreaks |
title_fullStr | Variant-specific interventions to slow down replacement and prevent outbreaks |
title_full_unstemmed | Variant-specific interventions to slow down replacement and prevent outbreaks |
title_short | Variant-specific interventions to slow down replacement and prevent outbreaks |
title_sort | variant-specific interventions to slow down replacement and prevent outbreaks |
topic | Original Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8452136/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34547362 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2021.108703 |
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