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Variant-specific interventions to slow down replacement and prevent outbreaks

Emergency and establishment of variants of concern (VOC) impose significant challenges for the COVID-19 pandemic control specially when a large portion of the population has not been fully vaccinated. Here we develop a mathematical model and utilize this model to examine the impact of non pharmaceut...

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Autores principales: Majeed, Bushra, Tosato, Marco, Wu, Jianhong
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Published by Elsevier Inc. 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8452136/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34547362
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2021.108703
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author Majeed, Bushra
Tosato, Marco
Wu, Jianhong
author_facet Majeed, Bushra
Tosato, Marco
Wu, Jianhong
author_sort Majeed, Bushra
collection PubMed
description Emergency and establishment of variants of concern (VOC) impose significant challenges for the COVID-19 pandemic control specially when a large portion of the population has not been fully vaccinated. Here we develop a mathematical model and utilize this model to examine the impact of non pharmaceutical interventions, including the COVID-test (PCR, antigen and antibody test) and whole genome sequencing (WGS) test capacity and contact tracing and quarantine strength, on the VOC-induced epidemic wave. We point out the undesirable and unexpected effect of lukewarm tracing and quarantine that can potentially increase the VOC-cases at the outbreak peak time, and we demonstrate the significance of strain-specific interventions to either prevent a VOC-induced outbreak, or to mitigate the epidemic wave when this outbreak is unavoidable.
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spelling pubmed-84521362021-09-21 Variant-specific interventions to slow down replacement and prevent outbreaks Majeed, Bushra Tosato, Marco Wu, Jianhong Math Biosci Original Research Article Emergency and establishment of variants of concern (VOC) impose significant challenges for the COVID-19 pandemic control specially when a large portion of the population has not been fully vaccinated. Here we develop a mathematical model and utilize this model to examine the impact of non pharmaceutical interventions, including the COVID-test (PCR, antigen and antibody test) and whole genome sequencing (WGS) test capacity and contact tracing and quarantine strength, on the VOC-induced epidemic wave. We point out the undesirable and unexpected effect of lukewarm tracing and quarantine that can potentially increase the VOC-cases at the outbreak peak time, and we demonstrate the significance of strain-specific interventions to either prevent a VOC-induced outbreak, or to mitigate the epidemic wave when this outbreak is unavoidable. Published by Elsevier Inc. 2022-01 2021-09-20 /pmc/articles/PMC8452136/ /pubmed/34547362 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2021.108703 Text en © 2021 Published by Elsevier Inc. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Original Research Article
Majeed, Bushra
Tosato, Marco
Wu, Jianhong
Variant-specific interventions to slow down replacement and prevent outbreaks
title Variant-specific interventions to slow down replacement and prevent outbreaks
title_full Variant-specific interventions to slow down replacement and prevent outbreaks
title_fullStr Variant-specific interventions to slow down replacement and prevent outbreaks
title_full_unstemmed Variant-specific interventions to slow down replacement and prevent outbreaks
title_short Variant-specific interventions to slow down replacement and prevent outbreaks
title_sort variant-specific interventions to slow down replacement and prevent outbreaks
topic Original Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8452136/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34547362
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2021.108703
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