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Restored relationship between ENSO and Indian summer monsoon rainfall around 1999/2000

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was identified as the dominant predictor for the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) in the early 1900s. An apparent weakening of the ENSO–ISMR relationship has been observed since the 1970s. Here, we found a clear restoration of the ENSO–ISMR relationship since...

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Autores principales: Yang, Xianke, Huang, Ping
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8454755/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34557753
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.xinn.2021.100102
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author Yang, Xianke
Huang, Ping
author_facet Yang, Xianke
Huang, Ping
author_sort Yang, Xianke
collection PubMed
description El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was identified as the dominant predictor for the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) in the early 1900s. An apparent weakening of the ENSO–ISMR relationship has been observed since the 1970s. Here, we found a clear restoration of the ENSO–ISMR relationship since 1999/2000. This restoring relationship is closely linked to the interdecadal transition of ENSO evolution and the associated sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over the tropical Atlantic. During 1979–1997, summer ENSO events mainly continued from the previous winter, which can drive apparent Atlantic Niña SSTAs to offset ENSO's impact on ISMR and weaken the ENSO–ISMR relationship. In contrast, when ENSO events newly emerge from late spring, as they have done more recently during 2000–2018, the associated tropical Atlantic SSTAs are weak and shift to the tropical North Atlantic, which can offset the contribution of Atlantic Niña and reinforce the ENSO–ISMR relationship. We identified that the diversity of ENSO's evolution, continuing from the previous winter or emerging from late spring, is the dominant factor perturbing the ENSO–ISMR relationship in recent epochs, with tropical Atlantic SSTAs as the crucial bridge. This finding should be considered in our efforts to improve ISMR prediction.
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spelling pubmed-84547552021-09-22 Restored relationship between ENSO and Indian summer monsoon rainfall around 1999/2000 Yang, Xianke Huang, Ping Innovation (Camb) Article El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was identified as the dominant predictor for the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) in the early 1900s. An apparent weakening of the ENSO–ISMR relationship has been observed since the 1970s. Here, we found a clear restoration of the ENSO–ISMR relationship since 1999/2000. This restoring relationship is closely linked to the interdecadal transition of ENSO evolution and the associated sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over the tropical Atlantic. During 1979–1997, summer ENSO events mainly continued from the previous winter, which can drive apparent Atlantic Niña SSTAs to offset ENSO's impact on ISMR and weaken the ENSO–ISMR relationship. In contrast, when ENSO events newly emerge from late spring, as they have done more recently during 2000–2018, the associated tropical Atlantic SSTAs are weak and shift to the tropical North Atlantic, which can offset the contribution of Atlantic Niña and reinforce the ENSO–ISMR relationship. We identified that the diversity of ENSO's evolution, continuing from the previous winter or emerging from late spring, is the dominant factor perturbing the ENSO–ISMR relationship in recent epochs, with tropical Atlantic SSTAs as the crucial bridge. This finding should be considered in our efforts to improve ISMR prediction. Elsevier 2021-04-02 /pmc/articles/PMC8454755/ /pubmed/34557753 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.xinn.2021.100102 Text en © 2021 The Author(s) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Yang, Xianke
Huang, Ping
Restored relationship between ENSO and Indian summer monsoon rainfall around 1999/2000
title Restored relationship between ENSO and Indian summer monsoon rainfall around 1999/2000
title_full Restored relationship between ENSO and Indian summer monsoon rainfall around 1999/2000
title_fullStr Restored relationship between ENSO and Indian summer monsoon rainfall around 1999/2000
title_full_unstemmed Restored relationship between ENSO and Indian summer monsoon rainfall around 1999/2000
title_short Restored relationship between ENSO and Indian summer monsoon rainfall around 1999/2000
title_sort restored relationship between enso and indian summer monsoon rainfall around 1999/2000
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8454755/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34557753
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.xinn.2021.100102
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