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Ergodicity-breaking reveals time optimal decision making in humans

Ergodicity describes an equivalence between the expectation value and the time average of observables. Applied to human behaviour, ergodic theories of decision-making reveal how individuals should tolerate risk in different environments. To optimize wealth over time, agents should adapt their utilit...

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Autores principales: Meder, David, Rabe, Finn, Morville, Tobias, Madsen, Kristoffer H., Koudahl, Magnus T., Dolan, Ray J., Siebner, Hartwig R., Hulme, Oliver J.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8454984/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34499635
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009217
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author Meder, David
Rabe, Finn
Morville, Tobias
Madsen, Kristoffer H.
Koudahl, Magnus T.
Dolan, Ray J.
Siebner, Hartwig R.
Hulme, Oliver J.
author_facet Meder, David
Rabe, Finn
Morville, Tobias
Madsen, Kristoffer H.
Koudahl, Magnus T.
Dolan, Ray J.
Siebner, Hartwig R.
Hulme, Oliver J.
author_sort Meder, David
collection PubMed
description Ergodicity describes an equivalence between the expectation value and the time average of observables. Applied to human behaviour, ergodic theories of decision-making reveal how individuals should tolerate risk in different environments. To optimize wealth over time, agents should adapt their utility function according to the dynamical setting they face. Linear utility is optimal for additive dynamics, whereas logarithmic utility is optimal for multiplicative dynamics. Whether humans approximate time optimal behavior across different dynamics is unknown. Here we compare the effects of additive versus multiplicative gamble dynamics on risky choice. We show that utility functions are modulated by gamble dynamics in ways not explained by prevailing decision theories. Instead, as predicted by time optimality, risk aversion increases under multiplicative dynamics, distributing close to the values that maximize the time average growth of in-game wealth. We suggest that our findings motivate a need for explicitly grounding theories of decision-making on ergodic considerations.
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spelling pubmed-84549842021-09-22 Ergodicity-breaking reveals time optimal decision making in humans Meder, David Rabe, Finn Morville, Tobias Madsen, Kristoffer H. Koudahl, Magnus T. Dolan, Ray J. Siebner, Hartwig R. Hulme, Oliver J. PLoS Comput Biol Research Article Ergodicity describes an equivalence between the expectation value and the time average of observables. Applied to human behaviour, ergodic theories of decision-making reveal how individuals should tolerate risk in different environments. To optimize wealth over time, agents should adapt their utility function according to the dynamical setting they face. Linear utility is optimal for additive dynamics, whereas logarithmic utility is optimal for multiplicative dynamics. Whether humans approximate time optimal behavior across different dynamics is unknown. Here we compare the effects of additive versus multiplicative gamble dynamics on risky choice. We show that utility functions are modulated by gamble dynamics in ways not explained by prevailing decision theories. Instead, as predicted by time optimality, risk aversion increases under multiplicative dynamics, distributing close to the values that maximize the time average growth of in-game wealth. We suggest that our findings motivate a need for explicitly grounding theories of decision-making on ergodic considerations. Public Library of Science 2021-09-09 /pmc/articles/PMC8454984/ /pubmed/34499635 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009217 Text en © 2021 Meder et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Meder, David
Rabe, Finn
Morville, Tobias
Madsen, Kristoffer H.
Koudahl, Magnus T.
Dolan, Ray J.
Siebner, Hartwig R.
Hulme, Oliver J.
Ergodicity-breaking reveals time optimal decision making in humans
title Ergodicity-breaking reveals time optimal decision making in humans
title_full Ergodicity-breaking reveals time optimal decision making in humans
title_fullStr Ergodicity-breaking reveals time optimal decision making in humans
title_full_unstemmed Ergodicity-breaking reveals time optimal decision making in humans
title_short Ergodicity-breaking reveals time optimal decision making in humans
title_sort ergodicity-breaking reveals time optimal decision making in humans
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8454984/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34499635
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009217
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