A risk model for detecting clinically significant prostate cancer based on bi-parametric magnetic resonance imaging in a Japanese cohort

Selective identification of men with clinically significant prostate cancer (sPC) is a pivotal issue. Development of a risk model for detecting sPC based on the prostate imaging reporting and data system (PI-RADS) for bi-parametric magnetic resonance imaging (bpMRI) and clinical parameters in a Japanese cohort is expected to prove beneficial. We retrospectively analyzed clinical parameters and bpMRI findings from 773 biopsy-naïve patients between January 2011 and December 2016. A risk model was established using multivariate logistic regression analysis and presented on a nomogram. Discrimination of the risk model was compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Statistical differences between the predictive model and clinical parameters were analyzed using DeLong test. sPC was detected in 343 men (44.3%). Multivariate logistic regression analysis to predict sPC revealed age (P = 0.002), log prostate-specific antigen (P < 0.001), prostate volume (P < 0.001) and PI-RADS scores (P < 0.001) as significant contributors to the model. Area under the curve was higher for the risk model (0.862), than for age (0.646), log prostate-specific antigen (0.652), prostate volume (0.697) or imaging score (0.822). DeLong test results also showed that the novel risk model performed significantly better than those parameters (P < 0.05). This novel risk model performed significantly better compared with PI-RADS scores and other parameters alone, and is thus expected to prove beneficial in making decisions regarding biopsy on suspicion of sPC.