A Five-MicroRNA Signature Predicts the Prognosis in Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma

BACKGROUND: There is no effective prognostic signature that could predict the prognosis of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). METHODS: We constructed a prognostic signature based on five microRNAs using random forest and Least Absolute Shrinkage And Selection Operator (LASSO) algorithm on the GSE32960 cohort (N = 213). We verified its prognostic value using three independent external validation cohorts (GSE36682, N = 62; GSE70970, N = 246; and TCGA-HNSC, N = 523). Through principal component analysis, receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, and C-index calculation, we confirmed the predictive accuracy of this prognostic signature. RESULTS: We calculated the risk score based on the LASSO algorithm and divided the patients into high- and low-risk groups according to the calculated optimal cutoff value. The patients in the high-risk group tended to have a worse prognosis outcome and chemotherapy response. The time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve showed that the 1-year overall survival rate of the five-microRNA signature had an area under the curve of more than 0.83. A functional annotation analysis of the five-microRNA signature showed that the patients in the high-risk group were usually accompanied by activation of DNA repair and MYC-target pathways, while the patients in the low-risk group had higher immune-related pathway signals. CONCLUSIONS: We constructed a five-microRNA prognostic signature, which could accurately predict the prognosis of nasopharyngeal carcinoma, and constructed a nomogram that could conveniently predict the overall survival of patients.