Modeling seasonal emergence of Poa annua in urban greenspace

Turfgrasses are perennial components of urban greenspaces found in parks, recreational areas, golf courses, sports fields, and lawns that confer many ecosystem services. A copious seed producer, Poa annua is the most troublesome weed of turfgrass and continually threatens the ecosystem services provided by urban greenspaces. Field research was conducted in Knoxville, TN to better understand environmental conditions triggering P. annua seedling emergence patterns to assist managers with optimally timing interventions—both chemical and non-chemical—for control. Fluctuations in cooling degree day (CDD(21C)) accumulation accounted for 82% of the variance in yearly cumulative P. annua emergence data collected in a single irrigated sward of hybrid bermudagrass [C. dactylon (L.) Pers. x. C. transvaalensis Burtt-Davy]. However, non-linear models using CDD(21C) data developed ex post were not able to accurately predict P. annua emergence patterns ex ante. In both years, P. annua emergence changed most rapidly between the 40th and 43rd week of the year when seven-day mean soil temperature and rainfall were 18.9 °C and 12.7 mm, respectively. Future research should explore the efficacy of herbicide mixtures applied when P. annua emergence is most rapidly changing in lieu of developing models to predict when specific emergence thresholds occur.