Mathematical models for assessing vaccination scenarios in several provinces in Indonesia

To mitigate casualties from the COVID-19 outbreak, this study aims at assessing the optimal vaccination scenarios, considering several existing healthcare conditions and assumptions, by developing SIQRD (Susceptible-Infected-Quarantine-Recovery-Death) models for Jakarta, West Java, and Banten, in In...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Nuraini, N., Sukandar, K.K., Hadisoemarto, P., Susanto, H., Hasan, A.I., Sumarti, N.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: KeAi Publishing 2021
Materias:
Vaccination and Mutation
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8461040/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34585032
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2021.09.002
Descripción
Sumario:To mitigate casualties from the COVID-19 outbreak, this study aims at assessing the optimal vaccination scenarios, considering several existing healthcare conditions and assumptions, by developing SIQRD (Susceptible-Infected-Quarantine-Recovery-Death) models for Jakarta, West Java, and Banten, in Indonesia. The models include an age-structured dynamic transmission model that naturally allows for different treatments among different age groups of the population. The simulation results show that the timing and period of the vaccination should be well planned and prioritizing particular age groups will give a significant impact on the total number of casualties.

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