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Inferring a cause-effect relationship between lockdown restrictions and COVID-19 pandemic trend during the first wave
The large number of infected persons due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the need of hospital care for many of them induced the majority of world governments to implement lockdown measures. We developed an analytical model to evaluate the trend of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. This model was applied to the...
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Elsevier B.V.
2021
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Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8461269/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34607714 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.healthpol.2021.09.008 |
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author | Megna, Rosario |
author_facet | Megna, Rosario |
author_sort | Megna, Rosario |
collection | PubMed |
description | The large number of infected persons due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the need of hospital care for many of them induced the majority of world governments to implement lockdown measures. We developed an analytical model to evaluate the trend of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. This model was applied to the first four months of the epidemiological data of the most affected countries in Europe and Russia, in order to evaluate the effect of the lockdown on the epidemic curves during the first wave. According to our model, the difference between the beginning of the lockdown and the slope change of the curve representing the daily distribution of counts was: Germany and Spain 6 days, France 7 days, the United Kingdom 9 days, Italy 21 days, and Russia 30 days. On the basis of these results, we infer a possible cause-effect relationship between the lockdown imposed in countries taken into account and the curve representing the daily distribution of new cases. Lockdown measures imposed by governments slowed the spread of the pandemic and reduced the number of infected persons. In economic terms, the damage was considerable, with entire production sectors in crisis. On the other hand, the efforts and innovations implemented to produce vaccines and effective treatments against the pandemic could be applied also in other fields of public health. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8461269 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | Elsevier B.V. |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-84612692021-09-24 Inferring a cause-effect relationship between lockdown restrictions and COVID-19 pandemic trend during the first wave Megna, Rosario Health Policy Article The large number of infected persons due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the need of hospital care for many of them induced the majority of world governments to implement lockdown measures. We developed an analytical model to evaluate the trend of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. This model was applied to the first four months of the epidemiological data of the most affected countries in Europe and Russia, in order to evaluate the effect of the lockdown on the epidemic curves during the first wave. According to our model, the difference between the beginning of the lockdown and the slope change of the curve representing the daily distribution of counts was: Germany and Spain 6 days, France 7 days, the United Kingdom 9 days, Italy 21 days, and Russia 30 days. On the basis of these results, we infer a possible cause-effect relationship between the lockdown imposed in countries taken into account and the curve representing the daily distribution of new cases. Lockdown measures imposed by governments slowed the spread of the pandemic and reduced the number of infected persons. In economic terms, the damage was considerable, with entire production sectors in crisis. On the other hand, the efforts and innovations implemented to produce vaccines and effective treatments against the pandemic could be applied also in other fields of public health. Elsevier B.V. 2021-11 2021-09-24 /pmc/articles/PMC8461269/ /pubmed/34607714 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.healthpol.2021.09.008 Text en © 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active. |
spellingShingle | Article Megna, Rosario Inferring a cause-effect relationship between lockdown restrictions and COVID-19 pandemic trend during the first wave |
title | Inferring a cause-effect relationship between lockdown restrictions and COVID-19 pandemic trend during the first wave |
title_full | Inferring a cause-effect relationship between lockdown restrictions and COVID-19 pandemic trend during the first wave |
title_fullStr | Inferring a cause-effect relationship between lockdown restrictions and COVID-19 pandemic trend during the first wave |
title_full_unstemmed | Inferring a cause-effect relationship between lockdown restrictions and COVID-19 pandemic trend during the first wave |
title_short | Inferring a cause-effect relationship between lockdown restrictions and COVID-19 pandemic trend during the first wave |
title_sort | inferring a cause-effect relationship between lockdown restrictions and covid-19 pandemic trend during the first wave |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8461269/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34607714 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.healthpol.2021.09.008 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT megnarosario inferringacauseeffectrelationshipbetweenlockdownrestrictionsandcovid19pandemictrendduringthefirstwave |