Visceral adiposity index outperforms conventional anthropometric assessments as predictor of diabetes mellitus in elderly Chinese: a population-based study

BACKGROUND: This study assessed the performance of visceral adiposity index and body shape index in predicting diabetes mellitus (DM) risk and compared their predictive ability to that of body mass index and waist circumference. METHODS: Among 8249 consecutive subjects who attended the Nationwide Health Check Up System for Senior Citizens (≥ 65 years) between 2008 and 2018, we examined the associations of several adiposity indices with DM risk and explored gender differences. RESULTS: Among all adiposity indicators, Chinese visceral adiposity index (CVAI) demonstrated the highest discriminatory ability for diabetes mellitus with area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) of 0.65, 0.68, and 0.66 for men, women, and all participants, respectively, and optimal cut-offs set as 126.09 in men and 117.77 in women. Compared with body shape index (ABSI), both CVAI and VAI were strongly associated with baseline DM (adjusted OR: 4.85, 95% CI: 4.05–5.82 and 4.22, 95% CI: 3.53–5.05 for 4th vs 1st quartile groups by CVAI and VAI, P < 0.001), which was more pronounced in older adult women (P(interaction) < 0.05). Over a median of 5.25 years (IQR: 3.07–6.44 years) follow-up, Cox regression models showed higher predictive ability of CVAI and VAI compared to ABSI. Further, both CVAI and VAI independently predicted new-onset DM (adjusted HR: 1.29, 95% CI: 1.22–1.37 and 1.16, 95% CI: 1.11–1.21 by CVAI and VAI) and composite endpoint of new DM and death among those without baseline DM. CONCLUSIONS: Our population-based data demonstrated that Chinese visceral adiposity index may serve as a superior clinical indicator of diabetes when compared with conventional anthropometric indices among older adult Chinese, especially in women. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12986-021-00608-6.