The risk and prognostic factors for brain metastases in esophageal cancer patients: an analysis of the SEER database

BACKGROUND: Brain metastases were rare in esophageal cancer patients. Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, the present study investigated the incidence, risk and prognostic factors of brain metastases in esophageal cancer patients. METHODS: Retrieving esophageal cancer patients diagnosed between 2010 and 2018 from the SEER database, univariable and multivariable logistic and cox regression models were used to investigate the risk factors for brain metastases development and prognosis, respectively. The brain metastases predicting nomogram was constructed, evaluated and validated. The overall survival (OS) of patients with brain metastases was analyzed by Kaplan–Meier method. RESULTS: A total of 34,107 eligible esophageal cancer patients were included and 618 of them were diagnosed with brain metastases (1.8%). The median survival of the brain metastatic esophageal cancer patients was 5 (95% CI: 5–7) months. The presence of bone metastases and lung metastases were the homogeneously associated factors for the development and prognosis of brain metastases in esophageal cancer patients. Patients younger than 65 years, American Indian/Alaska Native race (vs. White), overlapping lesion (vs. Upper third), esophageal adenocarcinoma histology subtype, higher N stage, and liver metastases were positively associated with brain metastases occurrence. The calibration curve, ROC curve, and C-index exhibited good performance of the nomogram for predicting brain metastases. CONCLUSIONS: Homogeneous and heterogeneous factors were found for the development and prognosis of brain metastases in esophageal cancer patients. The nomogram had good calibration and discrimination for predicting brain metastases.