A model of COVID-19 pandemic evolution in African countries

We studied the COVID-19 pandemic evolution in selected African countries. For each country considered, we modeled simultaneously the data of the active, recovered and death cases. In this study, we used a year of data since the first cases were reported. We estimated the time-dependent basic reprodu...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Amouzouvi, Kossi, Assamagan, Kétévi A., Azote, Somiéalo, Connell, Simon H., Fankam, Jean Baptiste Fankam, Fanomezana, Fenosoa, Guga, Aluwani, Haliya, Cyrille E., Mabote, Toivo S., Macucule, Francisco Fenias, Mathebula, Dephney, Muronga, Azwinndini, Mwale, Kondwani C.C., Njeri, Ann, Onyie, Ebode F., Rakotondravohitra, Laza, Zimba, George
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier B.V. on behalf of African Institute of Mathematical Sciences Next Einstein Initiative 2021
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8467372/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34604610
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.sciaf.2021.e00987
Descripción
Sumario:We studied the COVID-19 pandemic evolution in selected African countries. For each country considered, we modeled simultaneously the data of the active, recovered and death cases. In this study, we used a year of data since the first cases were reported. We estimated the time-dependent basic reproduction numbers, [Formula: see text] , and the fractions of infected but unaffected populations, to offer insights into containment and vaccine strategies in African countries. We found that [Formula: see text] at the start of the pandemic but has since fallen to [Formula: see text]. The unaffected fractions of the populations studied vary between [Formula: see text] % of the recovered cases.

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