A model of COVID-19 pandemic evolution in African countries

We studied the COVID-19 pandemic evolution in selected African countries. For each country considered, we modeled simultaneously the data of the active, recovered and death cases. In this study, we used a year of data since the first cases were reported. We estimated the time-dependent basic reprodu...

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Autores principales: Amouzouvi, Kossi, Assamagan, Kétévi A., Azote, Somiéalo, Connell, Simon H., Fankam, Jean Baptiste Fankam, Fanomezana, Fenosoa, Guga, Aluwani, Haliya, Cyrille E., Mabote, Toivo S., Macucule, Francisco Fenias, Mathebula, Dephney, Muronga, Azwinndini, Mwale, Kondwani C.C., Njeri, Ann, Onyie, Ebode F., Rakotondravohitra, Laza, Zimba, George
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier B.V. on behalf of African Institute of Mathematical Sciences Next Einstein Initiative 2021
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8467372/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34604610
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.sciaf.2021.e00987
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author Amouzouvi, Kossi
Assamagan, Kétévi A.
Azote, Somiéalo
Connell, Simon H.
Fankam, Jean Baptiste Fankam
Fanomezana, Fenosoa
Guga, Aluwani
Haliya, Cyrille E.
Mabote, Toivo S.
Macucule, Francisco Fenias
Mathebula, Dephney
Muronga, Azwinndini
Mwale, Kondwani C.C.
Njeri, Ann
Onyie, Ebode F.
Rakotondravohitra, Laza
Zimba, George
author_facet Amouzouvi, Kossi
Assamagan, Kétévi A.
Azote, Somiéalo
Connell, Simon H.
Fankam, Jean Baptiste Fankam
Fanomezana, Fenosoa
Guga, Aluwani
Haliya, Cyrille E.
Mabote, Toivo S.
Macucule, Francisco Fenias
Mathebula, Dephney
Muronga, Azwinndini
Mwale, Kondwani C.C.
Njeri, Ann
Onyie, Ebode F.
Rakotondravohitra, Laza
Zimba, George
author_sort Amouzouvi, Kossi
collection PubMed
description We studied the COVID-19 pandemic evolution in selected African countries. For each country considered, we modeled simultaneously the data of the active, recovered and death cases. In this study, we used a year of data since the first cases were reported. We estimated the time-dependent basic reproduction numbers, [Formula: see text] , and the fractions of infected but unaffected populations, to offer insights into containment and vaccine strategies in African countries. We found that [Formula: see text] at the start of the pandemic but has since fallen to [Formula: see text]. The unaffected fractions of the populations studied vary between [Formula: see text] % of the recovered cases.
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spelling pubmed-84673722021-09-27 A model of COVID-19 pandemic evolution in African countries Amouzouvi, Kossi Assamagan, Kétévi A. Azote, Somiéalo Connell, Simon H. Fankam, Jean Baptiste Fankam Fanomezana, Fenosoa Guga, Aluwani Haliya, Cyrille E. Mabote, Toivo S. Macucule, Francisco Fenias Mathebula, Dephney Muronga, Azwinndini Mwale, Kondwani C.C. Njeri, Ann Onyie, Ebode F. Rakotondravohitra, Laza Zimba, George Sci Afr Article We studied the COVID-19 pandemic evolution in selected African countries. For each country considered, we modeled simultaneously the data of the active, recovered and death cases. In this study, we used a year of data since the first cases were reported. We estimated the time-dependent basic reproduction numbers, [Formula: see text] , and the fractions of infected but unaffected populations, to offer insights into containment and vaccine strategies in African countries. We found that [Formula: see text] at the start of the pandemic but has since fallen to [Formula: see text]. The unaffected fractions of the populations studied vary between [Formula: see text] % of the recovered cases. Elsevier B.V. on behalf of African Institute of Mathematical Sciences Next Einstein Initiative 2021-11 2021-09-26 /pmc/articles/PMC8467372/ /pubmed/34604610 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.sciaf.2021.e00987 Text en Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of African Institute of Mathematical Sciences / Next Einstein Initiative. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Amouzouvi, Kossi
Assamagan, Kétévi A.
Azote, Somiéalo
Connell, Simon H.
Fankam, Jean Baptiste Fankam
Fanomezana, Fenosoa
Guga, Aluwani
Haliya, Cyrille E.
Mabote, Toivo S.
Macucule, Francisco Fenias
Mathebula, Dephney
Muronga, Azwinndini
Mwale, Kondwani C.C.
Njeri, Ann
Onyie, Ebode F.
Rakotondravohitra, Laza
Zimba, George
A model of COVID-19 pandemic evolution in African countries
title A model of COVID-19 pandemic evolution in African countries
title_full A model of COVID-19 pandemic evolution in African countries
title_fullStr A model of COVID-19 pandemic evolution in African countries
title_full_unstemmed A model of COVID-19 pandemic evolution in African countries
title_short A model of COVID-19 pandemic evolution in African countries
title_sort model of covid-19 pandemic evolution in african countries
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8467372/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34604610
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.sciaf.2021.e00987
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