Usefulness of E7 mRNA in HPV16-Positive Women to Predict the Risk of Progression to HSIL/CIN2+

Objective: To evaluate whether E7 mRNA can predict the risk of progression in women with HPV16 infection. Design: A prospective observational study. Setting: A tertiary university hospital. Population: A cohort of 139 women referred to colposcopy for an abnormal screening result fulfilling the following inclusion criteria: (1) a positive test result confirming HPV16 infection; (2) a biopsy sample with a histological diagnosis of an absence of lesion or low-grade SIL/CIN grade1 (LSIL/CIN1); (3) no previous HPV vaccination; (4) no pregnancy; and (5) no previous cervical treatments; and (6) no immunosuppression. Methods: At the first visit, all women underwent a cervical sample for liquid-based cytology, HPV testing and genotyping, and HPV16 E7 mRNA analysis and a colposcopy with at least one colposcopy-guided biopsy. Follow-up visits were scheduled every six months. In each control, a liquid-based Pap smear, HPV testing, as well as a colposcopy examination with biopsy if necessary were performed. Main outcome measures: Histological diagnosis of HSIL/CIN2+ at any time during follow-up. Results: E7 mRNA expression was positive in 55/127 (43.3%) women included in the study and seven (12.7%) progressed to HSIL/CIN2+. In contrast, only 1/72 (1.4%) women with no HPV16 E7 mRNA expression progressed (p = 0.027). HPV16 E7 mRNA expression was associated with a 10-fold increased risk of progression (HR 10.0; 95% CI 1.2–81.4). Conclusions: HPV16 E7 mRNA could be useful for risk stratification of women with HPV16 infection in whom a HSIL/CIN2+ has been ruled out. Funding: Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ICSIII)-Fondo de Investigación Sanitaria and ERDF ‘One Way to Europe’ (PI17/00772).