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Ordinal Time Series Forecasting of the Air Quality Index

This research models and forecasts daily AQI (air quality index) levels in 16 cities/counties of Taiwan, examines their AQI level forecast performance via a rolling window approach over a one-year validation period, including multi-level forecast classification, and measures the forecast accuracy ra...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Chen, Cathy W. S., Chiu, L. M.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8469594/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34573792
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/e23091167
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author Chen, Cathy W. S.
Chiu, L. M.
author_facet Chen, Cathy W. S.
Chiu, L. M.
author_sort Chen, Cathy W. S.
collection PubMed
description This research models and forecasts daily AQI (air quality index) levels in 16 cities/counties of Taiwan, examines their AQI level forecast performance via a rolling window approach over a one-year validation period, including multi-level forecast classification, and measures the forecast accuracy rates. We employ statistical modeling and machine learning with three weather covariates of daily accumulated precipitation, temperature, and wind direction and also include seasonal dummy variables. The study utilizes four models to forecast air quality levels: (1) an autoregressive model with exogenous variables and GARCH (generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity) errors; (2) an autoregressive multinomial logistic regression; (3) multi-class classification by support vector machine (SVM); (4) neural network autoregression with exogenous variable (NNARX). These models relate to lag-1 AQI values and the previous day’s weather covariates (precipitation and temperature), while wind direction serves as an hour-lag effect based on the idea of nowcasting. The results demonstrate that autoregressive multinomial logistic regression and the SVM method are the best choices for AQI-level predictions regarding the high average and low variation accuracy rates.
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spelling pubmed-84695942021-09-27 Ordinal Time Series Forecasting of the Air Quality Index Chen, Cathy W. S. Chiu, L. M. Entropy (Basel) Article This research models and forecasts daily AQI (air quality index) levels in 16 cities/counties of Taiwan, examines their AQI level forecast performance via a rolling window approach over a one-year validation period, including multi-level forecast classification, and measures the forecast accuracy rates. We employ statistical modeling and machine learning with three weather covariates of daily accumulated precipitation, temperature, and wind direction and also include seasonal dummy variables. The study utilizes four models to forecast air quality levels: (1) an autoregressive model with exogenous variables and GARCH (generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity) errors; (2) an autoregressive multinomial logistic regression; (3) multi-class classification by support vector machine (SVM); (4) neural network autoregression with exogenous variable (NNARX). These models relate to lag-1 AQI values and the previous day’s weather covariates (precipitation and temperature), while wind direction serves as an hour-lag effect based on the idea of nowcasting. The results demonstrate that autoregressive multinomial logistic regression and the SVM method are the best choices for AQI-level predictions regarding the high average and low variation accuracy rates. MDPI 2021-09-04 /pmc/articles/PMC8469594/ /pubmed/34573792 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/e23091167 Text en © 2021 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Chen, Cathy W. S.
Chiu, L. M.
Ordinal Time Series Forecasting of the Air Quality Index
title Ordinal Time Series Forecasting of the Air Quality Index
title_full Ordinal Time Series Forecasting of the Air Quality Index
title_fullStr Ordinal Time Series Forecasting of the Air Quality Index
title_full_unstemmed Ordinal Time Series Forecasting of the Air Quality Index
title_short Ordinal Time Series Forecasting of the Air Quality Index
title_sort ordinal time series forecasting of the air quality index
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8469594/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34573792
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/e23091167
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