Effects of Climatic Change on the Potential Distribution of Lycoriella Species (Diptera: Sciaridae) of Economic Importance

SIMPLE SUMMARY: Here, we describe climate change effects on biodiversity, mainly in pest species related to greenhouse production. We used statistical and theoretical methods to describe crops’ vulnerability under worldwide climate change. Some insects (flies) generate economic damage in mushroom, strawberry, and nursery production. We determined potential risk areas for the invasion of three fly species under different climate change scenarios in 2050. Range expansion was determined in the Northern Hemisphere; however, some regions in South America, Africa, and Australia had increases and potentially invasive areas. Our results provide information for farmers, researchers, and politicians for decision-making around production to reduce possible damage caused by pests. ABSTRACT: Lycoriella species (Sciaridae) are responsible for significant economic losses in greenhouse production (e.g., mushrooms, strawberries, and nurseries). The current distributions of species in the genus are restricted to cold-climate countries. Three species of Lycoriella are of particular economic concern in view of their ability to invade areas in countries across the Northern Hemisphere. We used ecological niche models to determine the potential for range expansion under future climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) in the distribution of these three species of Lycoriella. Stable environmental suitability under climate change was a dominant theme in these species; however, potential range increases were noted in key countries (e.g., USA, Brazil, and China). Our results illustrate the potential for range expansion in these species in the Southern Hemisphere, including some of the highest greenhouse production areas in the world.