Temporal trends in pre-ART patient characteristics and outcomes before the test and treat era in Central Kenya

BACKGROUND: Retention of patients who did not initiate antiretroviral therapy (ART) has been persistently low compared to those who initiated ART. Understanding the temporal trends in clinical outcomes prior to ART initiation may inform interventions targeting patients who do not initiate ART immediately after diagnosis. METHODS: A retrospective cohort analysis of known HIV-infected patients who did not initiate ART from healthcare facilities in Central Kenya was done to investigate temporal trends in characteristics, retention, and mortality outcomes. The data were sourced from the Comprehensive Care Clinic Patient Application Database (CPAD) and IQ care electronic patient-level databases for those enrolled between 2004 and 2014. RESULTS: A total of 13,779 HIV-infected patients were assessed, of whom 30.7% were men.There were statisitically significant differences in temporal trends relating to marital status, WHO clinical stage, and tuberculosis (TB) status from 2004 to 2014. The proportion of widowed patients decreased from 9.1 to 6.0%. By WHO clinical stage at enrollment in program, those in WHO stage I increased over time from 8.7 to 43.1%, while those in WHO stage III and IV reduced from 28.5 to 10.8% and 4.0 to 1.1% respectively. Those on TB treatment during their last known visit reduced from 8.3 to 3.9% while those with no TB signs increased from 58.5 to 86.8%. Trends in 6 and 12 month retention in the program, loss to follow-up (LTFU) and mortality were statistically significant. At 6 months, program retention ranged between 36.0% in 2004 to a high of 54.1% in 2013. LTFU at 6 months remained around 50.0% for most of the cohorts, while mortality at 6 months was 7.5% in 2004 but reduced to 3.8% in 2014. At 12 months, LTFU was above 50.0% across all the cohorts while mortality rate reached 3.9% in 2014. CONCLUSION: Trends in pre ART enrollment suggested higher enrollment among patients who were women and at earlier WHO clinical stages. Retention and mortality outcomes at 6 and 12 months generally improved over the 11 year follow-up period, though dipped as enrollment in asymptomatic disease stage increased.