Predictive Value of the Cardio‐Ankle Vascular Index for Cardiovascular Events in Patients at Cardiovascular Risk

BACKGROUND: Arterial stiffness is an important predictor of cardiovascular events; however, indexes for measuring arterial stiffness have not been widely incorporated into routine clinical practice. This study aimed to determine whether the cardio‐ankle vascular index (CAVI), based on the blood pressure–independent stiffness parameter β and reflecting arterial stiffness from the origin of the ascending aorta, is a good predictor of cardiovascular events in patients with cardiovascular disease risk factors in a large prospective cohort. METHODS AND RESULTS: This multicenter prospective cohort study, commencing in May 2013, with a 5‐year follow‐up period, included patients (aged 40‒74 years) with cardiovascular disease risks. The primary outcome was the composite of cardiovascular death, nonfatal stroke, or nonfatal myocardial infarction. Among 2932 included patients, 2001 (68.3%) were men; the mean (SD) age at diagnosis was 63 (8) years. During the median follow‐up of 4.9 years, 82 participants experienced primary outcomes. The CAVI predicted the primary outcome (hazard ratio, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.16‒1.65; P<0.001). In terms of event subtypes, the CAVI was associated with cardiovascular death and stroke but not with myocardial infarction. When the CAVI was incorporated into a model with known cardiovascular disease risks for predicting cardiovascular events, the global χ(2) value increased from 33.8 to 45.2 (P<0.001), and the net reclassification index was 0.254 (P=0.024). CONCLUSIONS: This large cohort study demonstrated that the CAVI predicted cardiovascular events. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT01859897.