Risk factors of prolonged ventilation after thymectomy in thymoma myasthenia gravis patients

BACKGROUND: To explore the risk factors for prolonged ventilation after thymectomy in patients with thymoma associated with myasthenia gravis (TAMG). METHODS: We reviewed the records of 112 patients with TAMG after thymectomy between January 2010 and December 2019 in Peking University People’s Hospital. Demographic, pathological, preoperative data and the Anesthesia, surgery details were assessed with multivariable logistic regression analysis to predict the risk of prolonged ventilation after thymectomy. A nomogram to predict the probability of post-thymectomy ventilation was constructed with R software. Discrimination and calibration were employed to evaluate the performance of the nomogram. RESULTS: By multivariate analysis, male, low vital capacity (VC), Osserman classification (IIb, III, IV), total intravenous anesthesia, and long operation time were identified as the risk factors and entered into the nomogram. The nomogram showed a robust discrimination, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0. 835 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.757–0.913). The calibration plot indicated that the nomogram-predicted probabilities compared very well with the actual probabilities (Hosmer–Lemeshow test: P = 0.921). CONCLUSION: The nomogram is a valuable predictive tool for prolonged ventilation after thymectomy in patients with TAMG. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13019-021-01668-8.