Incidence of Acute Myocardial Infarction in Northern Tanzania: A Modeling Approach Within a Prospective Observational Study

BACKGROUND: Rigorous incidence data for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in sub‐Saharan Africa are lacking. Consequently, modeling studies based on limited data have suggested that the burden of AMI and AMI‐associated mortality in sub‐Saharan Africa is lower than in other world regions. METHODS AND RESULTS: We estimated the incidence of AMI in northern Tanzania in 2019 by integrating data from a prospective surveillance study (681 participants) and a community survey of healthcare‐seeking behavior (718 participants). In the surveillance study, adults presenting to an emergency department with chest pain or shortness of breath were screened for AMI with ECG and troponin testing. AMI was defined by the Fourth Universal Definition of AMI criteria. Mortality was assessed 30 days following enrollment via in‐person or telephone interviews. In the cluster‐based community survey, adults in northern Tanzania were asked where they would present for chest pain or shortness of breath. Multipliers were applied to account for AMI cases that would have been missed by our surveillance methods. The estimated annual incidence of AMI was 172 (207 among men and 139 among women) cases per 100 000 people. The age‐standardized annual incidence was 211 (263 among men and 170 among women) per 100 000 people. The estimated annual incidence of AMI‐associated mortality was 87 deaths per 100 000 people, and the age‐standardized annual incidence was 102 deaths per 100 000 people. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of AMI and AMI‐associated mortality in northern Tanzania is much higher than previously estimated and similar to that observed in high‐income countries.