Developing Strategy to Predict the Results of Prostate Multiparametric Magnetic Resonance Imaging and Reduce Unnecessary Multiparametric Magnetic Resonance Imaging Scan

PURPOSE: The clinical utility of multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI) for the detection and localization of prostate cancer (PCa) has been evaluated and validated. However, the implementation of mpMRI into the clinical practice remains some burden of cost and availability for patients and society. We aimed to predict the results of prostate mpMRI using the clinical parameters and multivariable model to reduce unnecessary mpMRI scans. METHODS: We retrospectively identified 784 men who underwent mpMRI scans and subsequent prostate biopsy between 2016 and 2020 according to the inclusion criterion. The cohort was split into a training cohort of 548 (70%) patients and a validation cohort of 236 (30%) patients. Clinical parameters including age, prostate-specific antigen (PSA) derivates, and prostate volume (PV) were assessed as the predictors of mpMRI results. The mpMRI results were divided into groups according to the reports: “negative”, “equivocal”, and “suspicious” for the presence of PCa. RESULTS: Univariate analysis showed that the total PSA (tPSA), free PSA (fPSA), PV, and PSA density (PSAD) were significant predictors for suspicious mpMRI (P < 0.05). The PSAD (AUC = 0.77) and tPSA (AUC = 0.74) outperformed fPSA (AUC = 0.68) and PV (AUC = 0.62) in the prediction of the mpMRI results. The multivariate model (AUC = 0.80) had a similar diagnostic accuracy with PSAD (P = 0.108), while higher than tPSA (P = 0.024) in predicting the mpMRI results. The multivariate model illustrated a better calibration and substantial improvement in the decision curve analysis (DCA) at a threshold above 20%. Using the PSAD with a 0.13 ng/ml(2) cut-off could spare the number of mpMRI scans by 20%, keeping a 90% sensitivity in the prediction of suspicious MRI-PCa and missing three (3/73, 4%) clinically significant PCa cases. At the same sensitivity level, the multivariate model with a 32% cut-off could spare the number of mpMRI scans by 27%, missing only one (1/73, 1%) clinically significant PCa case. CONCLUSION: Our multivariate model could reduce the number of unnecessary mpMRI scans without comprising the diagnostic ability of clinically significant PCa. Further prospective validation is required.