Tail risks and infectious disease: Influenza mortality in the U.S., 1900–2018()

I use extreme values theory and data on influenza mortality from the U.S. for 1900 to 2018 to estimate the tail risks of mortality. I find that the distribution for influenza mortality rates is heavy-tailed, which suggests that the tails of the mortality distribution are more informative than the ev...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor principal: Campolieti, Michele
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: KeAi Publishing 2021
Materias:
Original Research Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8477200/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34632167
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2021.09.001
Descripción
Sumario:I use extreme values theory and data on influenza mortality from the U.S. for 1900 to 2018 to estimate the tail risks of mortality. I find that the distribution for influenza mortality rates is heavy-tailed, which suggests that the tails of the mortality distribution are more informative than the events of high frequency (i.e., years of low mortality). I also discuss the implications of my estimates for risk management and pandemic planning.

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