Tail risks and infectious disease: Influenza mortality in the U.S., 1900–2018()

I use extreme values theory and data on influenza mortality from the U.S. for 1900 to 2018 to estimate the tail risks of mortality. I find that the distribution for influenza mortality rates is heavy-tailed, which suggests that the tails of the mortality distribution are more informative than the ev...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor principal: Campolieti, Michele
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: KeAi Publishing 2021
Materias:
Original Research Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8477200/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34632167
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2021.09.001
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author Campolieti, Michele
author_facet Campolieti, Michele
author_sort Campolieti, Michele
collection PubMed
description I use extreme values theory and data on influenza mortality from the U.S. for 1900 to 2018 to estimate the tail risks of mortality. I find that the distribution for influenza mortality rates is heavy-tailed, which suggests that the tails of the mortality distribution are more informative than the events of high frequency (i.e., years of low mortality). I also discuss the implications of my estimates for risk management and pandemic planning.
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spelling pubmed-84772002021-10-08 Tail risks and infectious disease: Influenza mortality in the U.S., 1900–2018() Campolieti, Michele Infect Dis Model Original Research Article I use extreme values theory and data on influenza mortality from the U.S. for 1900 to 2018 to estimate the tail risks of mortality. I find that the distribution for influenza mortality rates is heavy-tailed, which suggests that the tails of the mortality distribution are more informative than the events of high frequency (i.e., years of low mortality). I also discuss the implications of my estimates for risk management and pandemic planning. KeAi Publishing 2021-09-20 /pmc/articles/PMC8477200/ /pubmed/34632167 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2021.09.001 Text en © 2021 The Author https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
spellingShingle Original Research Article
Campolieti, Michele
Tail risks and infectious disease: Influenza mortality in the U.S., 1900–2018()
title Tail risks and infectious disease: Influenza mortality in the U.S., 1900–2018()
title_full Tail risks and infectious disease: Influenza mortality in the U.S., 1900–2018()
title_fullStr Tail risks and infectious disease: Influenza mortality in the U.S., 1900–2018()
title_full_unstemmed Tail risks and infectious disease: Influenza mortality in the U.S., 1900–2018()
title_short Tail risks and infectious disease: Influenza mortality in the U.S., 1900–2018()
title_sort tail risks and infectious disease: influenza mortality in the u.s., 1900–2018()
topic Original Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8477200/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34632167
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2021.09.001
work_keys_str_mv AT campolietimichele tailrisksandinfectiousdiseaseinfluenzamortalityintheus19002018

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