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Which features of an outpatient treatment for COVID-19 would be most important for pandemic control? A modelling study

The global pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has challenged healthcare systems worldwide. Lockdown, social distancing, and screening are thought to be the best means of stopping the virus from spreading and thus of preventing hospital capacity from being overloaded. However, it has als...

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Autores principales: Lanoix, Jean-Philippe, Mammeri, Youcef, Schmit, Jean-Luc, Lefranc, Michel
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: The Royal Society 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8479332/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34583560
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2021.0319
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author Lanoix, Jean-Philippe
Mammeri, Youcef
Schmit, Jean-Luc
Lefranc, Michel
author_facet Lanoix, Jean-Philippe
Mammeri, Youcef
Schmit, Jean-Luc
Lefranc, Michel
author_sort Lanoix, Jean-Philippe
collection PubMed
description The global pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has challenged healthcare systems worldwide. Lockdown, social distancing, and screening are thought to be the best means of stopping the virus from spreading and thus of preventing hospital capacity from being overloaded. However, it has also been suggested that effective outpatient treatment can control pandemics. We adapted a mathematical model of the beneficial effect of lockdown on viral transmission and used it to determine which characteristics of outpatient treatment would stop an epidemic. The data on confirmed cases, recovered cases, and deaths were collected from Santé Publique France. After defining components of the epidemic flow, we used a Morris global sensitivity analysis with a 10-level grid and 1000 trajectories to determine which of the treatment parameters had the largest effect. Treatment effectiveness was defined as a reduction in the patients' contagiousness. Early treatment initiation was associated with better disease control—as long as the treatment was highly effective. However, initiation of a treatment with a moderate effectiveness rate (5%) after the peak of the epidemic was still better than poor distancing (i.e. when compliance with social distancing rules was below 60%). Even though most of today's COVID-19 research is focused on inpatient treatment and vaccines, our results emphasize the potentially beneficial impact of even a moderately effective outpatient treatment on the current pandemic.
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spelling pubmed-84793322021-09-30 Which features of an outpatient treatment for COVID-19 would be most important for pandemic control? A modelling study Lanoix, Jean-Philippe Mammeri, Youcef Schmit, Jean-Luc Lefranc, Michel J R Soc Interface Life Sciences–Mathematics interface The global pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has challenged healthcare systems worldwide. Lockdown, social distancing, and screening are thought to be the best means of stopping the virus from spreading and thus of preventing hospital capacity from being overloaded. However, it has also been suggested that effective outpatient treatment can control pandemics. We adapted a mathematical model of the beneficial effect of lockdown on viral transmission and used it to determine which characteristics of outpatient treatment would stop an epidemic. The data on confirmed cases, recovered cases, and deaths were collected from Santé Publique France. After defining components of the epidemic flow, we used a Morris global sensitivity analysis with a 10-level grid and 1000 trajectories to determine which of the treatment parameters had the largest effect. Treatment effectiveness was defined as a reduction in the patients' contagiousness. Early treatment initiation was associated with better disease control—as long as the treatment was highly effective. However, initiation of a treatment with a moderate effectiveness rate (5%) after the peak of the epidemic was still better than poor distancing (i.e. when compliance with social distancing rules was below 60%). Even though most of today's COVID-19 research is focused on inpatient treatment and vaccines, our results emphasize the potentially beneficial impact of even a moderately effective outpatient treatment on the current pandemic. The Royal Society 2021-09-29 /pmc/articles/PMC8479332/ /pubmed/34583560 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2021.0319 Text en © 2021 The Authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Life Sciences–Mathematics interface
Lanoix, Jean-Philippe
Mammeri, Youcef
Schmit, Jean-Luc
Lefranc, Michel
Which features of an outpatient treatment for COVID-19 would be most important for pandemic control? A modelling study
title Which features of an outpatient treatment for COVID-19 would be most important for pandemic control? A modelling study
title_full Which features of an outpatient treatment for COVID-19 would be most important for pandemic control? A modelling study
title_fullStr Which features of an outpatient treatment for COVID-19 would be most important for pandemic control? A modelling study
title_full_unstemmed Which features of an outpatient treatment for COVID-19 would be most important for pandemic control? A modelling study
title_short Which features of an outpatient treatment for COVID-19 would be most important for pandemic control? A modelling study
title_sort which features of an outpatient treatment for covid-19 would be most important for pandemic control? a modelling study
topic Life Sciences–Mathematics interface
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8479332/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34583560
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2021.0319
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