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Gazing through time and beyond the health sector: Insights from a system dynamics model of cardiovascular disease in Australia

OBJECTIVE: To construct a whole-of-system model to inform strategies that reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Australia. METHODS: A system dynamics model was developed with a multidisciplinary modelling consortium. The model population comprised Australians aged 40 years and over, a...

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Autores principales: Peng, Cindy Q., Lawson, Kenny D., Heffernan, Mark, McDonnell, Geoff, Liew, Danny, Lybrand, Sean, Pearson, Sallie-Anne, Cutler, Henry, Kritharides, Leonard, Trieu, Kathy, Huynh, Quan, Usherwood, Tim, Occhipinti, Jo-An
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8483334/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34591888
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0257760
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author Peng, Cindy Q.
Lawson, Kenny D.
Heffernan, Mark
McDonnell, Geoff
Liew, Danny
Lybrand, Sean
Pearson, Sallie-Anne
Cutler, Henry
Kritharides, Leonard
Trieu, Kathy
Huynh, Quan
Usherwood, Tim
Occhipinti, Jo-An
author_facet Peng, Cindy Q.
Lawson, Kenny D.
Heffernan, Mark
McDonnell, Geoff
Liew, Danny
Lybrand, Sean
Pearson, Sallie-Anne
Cutler, Henry
Kritharides, Leonard
Trieu, Kathy
Huynh, Quan
Usherwood, Tim
Occhipinti, Jo-An
author_sort Peng, Cindy Q.
collection PubMed
description OBJECTIVE: To construct a whole-of-system model to inform strategies that reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Australia. METHODS: A system dynamics model was developed with a multidisciplinary modelling consortium. The model population comprised Australians aged 40 years and over, and the scope encompassed acute and chronic CVD as well as primary and secondary prevention. Health outcomes were CVD-related deaths and hospitalisations, and economic outcomes were the net benefit from both the healthcare system and societal perspectives. The eight strategies broadly included creating social and physical environments supportive of a healthy lifestyle, increasing the use of preventive treatments, and improving systems response to acute CVD events. The effects of strategies were estimated as relative differences to the business-as-usual between 2019–2039. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis produced uncertainty intervals of interquartile ranges (IQR). FINDINGS: The greatest reduction in CVD-related deaths was seen in strategies that improve systems response to acute CVD events (8.9%, IQR: 7.7–10.2%), yet they resulted in an increase in CVD-related hospitalisations due to future recurrent admissions (1.6%, IQR: 0.1–2.3%). This flow-on effect highlighted the importance of addressing underlying CVD risks. On the other hand, strategies targeting the broad environment that supports a healthy lifestyle were effective in reducing both hospitalisations (7.1%; IQR: 5.0–9.5%) and deaths (8.1% reduction; IQR: 7.1–8.9%). They also produced an economic net benefit of AU$43.3 billion (IQR: 37.7–48.7) using a societal perspective, largely driven by productivity gains. Overall, strategic planning to reduce the burden of CVD should consider the varying effects of strategies over time and beyond the health sector.
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spelling pubmed-84833342021-10-01 Gazing through time and beyond the health sector: Insights from a system dynamics model of cardiovascular disease in Australia Peng, Cindy Q. Lawson, Kenny D. Heffernan, Mark McDonnell, Geoff Liew, Danny Lybrand, Sean Pearson, Sallie-Anne Cutler, Henry Kritharides, Leonard Trieu, Kathy Huynh, Quan Usherwood, Tim Occhipinti, Jo-An PLoS One Research Article OBJECTIVE: To construct a whole-of-system model to inform strategies that reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Australia. METHODS: A system dynamics model was developed with a multidisciplinary modelling consortium. The model population comprised Australians aged 40 years and over, and the scope encompassed acute and chronic CVD as well as primary and secondary prevention. Health outcomes were CVD-related deaths and hospitalisations, and economic outcomes were the net benefit from both the healthcare system and societal perspectives. The eight strategies broadly included creating social and physical environments supportive of a healthy lifestyle, increasing the use of preventive treatments, and improving systems response to acute CVD events. The effects of strategies were estimated as relative differences to the business-as-usual between 2019–2039. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis produced uncertainty intervals of interquartile ranges (IQR). FINDINGS: The greatest reduction in CVD-related deaths was seen in strategies that improve systems response to acute CVD events (8.9%, IQR: 7.7–10.2%), yet they resulted in an increase in CVD-related hospitalisations due to future recurrent admissions (1.6%, IQR: 0.1–2.3%). This flow-on effect highlighted the importance of addressing underlying CVD risks. On the other hand, strategies targeting the broad environment that supports a healthy lifestyle were effective in reducing both hospitalisations (7.1%; IQR: 5.0–9.5%) and deaths (8.1% reduction; IQR: 7.1–8.9%). They also produced an economic net benefit of AU$43.3 billion (IQR: 37.7–48.7) using a societal perspective, largely driven by productivity gains. Overall, strategic planning to reduce the burden of CVD should consider the varying effects of strategies over time and beyond the health sector. Public Library of Science 2021-09-30 /pmc/articles/PMC8483334/ /pubmed/34591888 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0257760 Text en © 2021 Peng et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Peng, Cindy Q.
Lawson, Kenny D.
Heffernan, Mark
McDonnell, Geoff
Liew, Danny
Lybrand, Sean
Pearson, Sallie-Anne
Cutler, Henry
Kritharides, Leonard
Trieu, Kathy
Huynh, Quan
Usherwood, Tim
Occhipinti, Jo-An
Gazing through time and beyond the health sector: Insights from a system dynamics model of cardiovascular disease in Australia
title Gazing through time and beyond the health sector: Insights from a system dynamics model of cardiovascular disease in Australia
title_full Gazing through time and beyond the health sector: Insights from a system dynamics model of cardiovascular disease in Australia
title_fullStr Gazing through time and beyond the health sector: Insights from a system dynamics model of cardiovascular disease in Australia
title_full_unstemmed Gazing through time and beyond the health sector: Insights from a system dynamics model of cardiovascular disease in Australia
title_short Gazing through time and beyond the health sector: Insights from a system dynamics model of cardiovascular disease in Australia
title_sort gazing through time and beyond the health sector: insights from a system dynamics model of cardiovascular disease in australia
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8483334/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34591888
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0257760
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