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Levels of SARS-CoV-2 population exposure are considerably higher than suggested by seroprevalence surveys

Accurate knowledge of prior population exposure has critical ramifications for preparedness plans for future SARS-CoV-2 epidemic waves and vaccine prioritization strategies. Serological studies can be used to estimate levels of past exposure and thus position populations in their epidemic timeline....

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Chen, Siyu, Flegg, Jennifer A., White, Lisa J., Aguas, Ricardo
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8483393/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34543264
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009436
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author Chen, Siyu
Flegg, Jennifer A.
White, Lisa J.
Aguas, Ricardo
author_facet Chen, Siyu
Flegg, Jennifer A.
White, Lisa J.
Aguas, Ricardo
author_sort Chen, Siyu
collection PubMed
description Accurate knowledge of prior population exposure has critical ramifications for preparedness plans for future SARS-CoV-2 epidemic waves and vaccine prioritization strategies. Serological studies can be used to estimate levels of past exposure and thus position populations in their epidemic timeline. To circumvent biases introduced by the decay in antibody titers over time, methods for estimating population exposure should account for seroreversion, to reflect that changes in seroprevalence measures over time are the net effect of increases due to recent transmission and decreases due to antibody waning. Here, we present a new method that combines multiple datasets (serology, mortality, and virus positivity ratios) to estimate seroreversion time and infection fatality ratios (IFR) and simultaneously infer population exposure levels. The results indicate that the average time to seroreversion is around six months, IFR is 0.54% to 1.3%, and true exposure may be more than double the current seroprevalence levels reported for several regions of England.
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spelling pubmed-84833932021-10-01 Levels of SARS-CoV-2 population exposure are considerably higher than suggested by seroprevalence surveys Chen, Siyu Flegg, Jennifer A. White, Lisa J. Aguas, Ricardo PLoS Comput Biol Research Article Accurate knowledge of prior population exposure has critical ramifications for preparedness plans for future SARS-CoV-2 epidemic waves and vaccine prioritization strategies. Serological studies can be used to estimate levels of past exposure and thus position populations in their epidemic timeline. To circumvent biases introduced by the decay in antibody titers over time, methods for estimating population exposure should account for seroreversion, to reflect that changes in seroprevalence measures over time are the net effect of increases due to recent transmission and decreases due to antibody waning. Here, we present a new method that combines multiple datasets (serology, mortality, and virus positivity ratios) to estimate seroreversion time and infection fatality ratios (IFR) and simultaneously infer population exposure levels. The results indicate that the average time to seroreversion is around six months, IFR is 0.54% to 1.3%, and true exposure may be more than double the current seroprevalence levels reported for several regions of England. Public Library of Science 2021-09-20 /pmc/articles/PMC8483393/ /pubmed/34543264 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009436 Text en © 2021 Chen et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Chen, Siyu
Flegg, Jennifer A.
White, Lisa J.
Aguas, Ricardo
Levels of SARS-CoV-2 population exposure are considerably higher than suggested by seroprevalence surveys
title Levels of SARS-CoV-2 population exposure are considerably higher than suggested by seroprevalence surveys
title_full Levels of SARS-CoV-2 population exposure are considerably higher than suggested by seroprevalence surveys
title_fullStr Levels of SARS-CoV-2 population exposure are considerably higher than suggested by seroprevalence surveys
title_full_unstemmed Levels of SARS-CoV-2 population exposure are considerably higher than suggested by seroprevalence surveys
title_short Levels of SARS-CoV-2 population exposure are considerably higher than suggested by seroprevalence surveys
title_sort levels of sars-cov-2 population exposure are considerably higher than suggested by seroprevalence surveys
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8483393/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34543264
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009436
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