Using density of antecedent events and trajectory path analysis to investigate family-correlated patterns of onset of bipolar I disorder: a comparison of cohorts from Europe and USA

BACKGROUND: Major contributors to the global burden of bipolar disorders (BD) are the early age at onset (AAO) and the co-occurrence of non-mood disorders before and after the onset of BD. Using data from two independent cohorts from Europe and the USA, we investigated whether the trajectories of BD-I onset and patterns of psychiatric comorbidities differed in (a) individuals with or without a family history (FH) of BD, or (b) probands and parents who both had BD-I. METHODS: First, we estimated cumulative probabilities and AAO of comorbid mental disorders in familial and non-familial cases of BD-I (Europe, n = 573), and sex-matched proband-parent pairs of BD-I cases (USA, n = 194). Then we used time to onset analyses to compare overall AAO of BD-I and AAO according to onset polarity. Next, we examined associations between AAO and polarity of onset of BD-I according to individual experiences of comorbidities. This included analysis of the density of antecedent events (defined as the number of antecedent comorbidities per year of exposure to mental illness per individual) and time trend analysis of trajectory paths plotted for the subgroups included in each cohort (using R(2) goodness of fit analysis). RESULTS: Earlier AAO of BD-I was found in FH versus non-FH cases (log rank test = 7.63; p = 0.006) and in probands versus parents with BD-I (log rank test = 15.31; p = 0.001). In the European cohort, AAO of BD-I was significantly associated with factors such as: FH of BD (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.60), earlier AAO of first non-mood disorder (HR: 0.93) and greater number of comorbidities (HR: 0.74). In the USA cohort, probands with BD-I had an earlier AAO for depressive and manic episodes and AAO was also associated with e.g., number of comorbidities (HR: 0.65) and year of birth (HR: 2.44). Trajectory path analysis indicated significant differences in density of antecedents between subgroups within each cohort. However, the time trend R(2) analysis was significantly different for the European cohort only. CONCLUSIONS: Estimating density of antecedent events and comparing trajectory plots for different BD subgroups are informative adjuncts to established statistical approaches and may offer additional insights that enhance understanding of the evolution of BD-I. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40345-021-00234-4.