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Improving the thermal structure predictions in the Yellow Sea by conducting targeted observations in the CNOP-identified sensitive areas

Targeted observation is an appealing procedure for improving model predictions. However, studies on oceanic targeted observations have been largely based on modeling efforts, and there is a need for field validating operations. Here, we report the results of a field targeted observation that is desi...

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Autores principales: Liu, Kun, Guo, Wuhong, Da, Lianglong, Liu, Jingyi, Hu, Huiqin, Cui, Baolong
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8484458/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34593908
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-98994-7
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author Liu, Kun
Guo, Wuhong
Da, Lianglong
Liu, Jingyi
Hu, Huiqin
Cui, Baolong
author_facet Liu, Kun
Guo, Wuhong
Da, Lianglong
Liu, Jingyi
Hu, Huiqin
Cui, Baolong
author_sort Liu, Kun
collection PubMed
description Targeted observation is an appealing procedure for improving model predictions. However, studies on oceanic targeted observations have been largely based on modeling efforts, and there is a need for field validating operations. Here, we report the results of a field targeted observation that is designed based on the sensitive areas identified by the Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation approach to improve the 7th day thermal structure prediction in the Yellow Sea. By introducing the technique of cycle data assimilation and the new concept of time-varying sensitive areas, an observing strategy is designed and validated by a set of Observing System Simulation Experiments. Then, the impact of targeted observations was investigated by a choreographed field campaign in the summer of 2019. The results of the in-field Observing System Experiments show that, compared to conventional local data assimilation, conducting targeted observations in the sensitive areas can yield more benefit at the verification time. Furthermore, dynamic analysis demonstrates that the refinement of vertical thermal structures is mainly caused by the changes in the upstream horizontal temperature advection driven by the Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass circulation. This study highlights the effectiveness of targeted observations on reducing the forecast uncertainty in the ocean.
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spelling pubmed-84844582021-10-04 Improving the thermal structure predictions in the Yellow Sea by conducting targeted observations in the CNOP-identified sensitive areas Liu, Kun Guo, Wuhong Da, Lianglong Liu, Jingyi Hu, Huiqin Cui, Baolong Sci Rep Article Targeted observation is an appealing procedure for improving model predictions. However, studies on oceanic targeted observations have been largely based on modeling efforts, and there is a need for field validating operations. Here, we report the results of a field targeted observation that is designed based on the sensitive areas identified by the Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation approach to improve the 7th day thermal structure prediction in the Yellow Sea. By introducing the technique of cycle data assimilation and the new concept of time-varying sensitive areas, an observing strategy is designed and validated by a set of Observing System Simulation Experiments. Then, the impact of targeted observations was investigated by a choreographed field campaign in the summer of 2019. The results of the in-field Observing System Experiments show that, compared to conventional local data assimilation, conducting targeted observations in the sensitive areas can yield more benefit at the verification time. Furthermore, dynamic analysis demonstrates that the refinement of vertical thermal structures is mainly caused by the changes in the upstream horizontal temperature advection driven by the Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass circulation. This study highlights the effectiveness of targeted observations on reducing the forecast uncertainty in the ocean. Nature Publishing Group UK 2021-09-30 /pmc/articles/PMC8484458/ /pubmed/34593908 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-98994-7 Text en © The Author(s) 2021 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Article
Liu, Kun
Guo, Wuhong
Da, Lianglong
Liu, Jingyi
Hu, Huiqin
Cui, Baolong
Improving the thermal structure predictions in the Yellow Sea by conducting targeted observations in the CNOP-identified sensitive areas
title Improving the thermal structure predictions in the Yellow Sea by conducting targeted observations in the CNOP-identified sensitive areas
title_full Improving the thermal structure predictions in the Yellow Sea by conducting targeted observations in the CNOP-identified sensitive areas
title_fullStr Improving the thermal structure predictions in the Yellow Sea by conducting targeted observations in the CNOP-identified sensitive areas
title_full_unstemmed Improving the thermal structure predictions in the Yellow Sea by conducting targeted observations in the CNOP-identified sensitive areas
title_short Improving the thermal structure predictions in the Yellow Sea by conducting targeted observations in the CNOP-identified sensitive areas
title_sort improving the thermal structure predictions in the yellow sea by conducting targeted observations in the cnop-identified sensitive areas
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8484458/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34593908
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-98994-7
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