Establishment of a prognostic model for patients with sepsis based on SOFA: a retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE: To construct a nomogram based on the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) that is more accurate in predicting 30-, 60-, and 90-day mortality risk in patients with sepsis. METHODS: Data from patients with sepsis were retrospectively collected from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC) database. Included patients were randomly divided into training and validation cohorts. Variables were selected using a backward stepwise selection method with Cox regression, then used to construct a prognostic nomogram. The nomogram was compared with the SOFA model using the concordance index (C-index), area under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC), net reclassification improvement (NRI), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), calibration plotting, and decision-curve analysis (DCA). RESULTS: A total of 5240 patients were included in the study. Patient’s age, SOFA score, metastatic cancer, SpO(2), lactate, body temperature, albumin, and red blood cell distribution width were included in the nomogram. The C-index, AUC, NRI, IDI, and DCA of the nomogram showed that it performs better than the SOFA alone. CONCLUSION: A nomogram was established that performed better than the SOFA in predicting 30-, 60-, and 90-day mortality risk in patients with sepsis.