Forecasts of Covid-19 evolution by nearest epidemic trajectories detection

Robust method of short-term forecast of Covid-19 epidemic in small administrative units (districts) is proposed. By identifying similar sections of epidemic evolutions in the past it is possible to obtain short-term forecast of epidemic in given district. Examples of one and two-weeks forecasts for...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor principal: Rusin, Tomasz M.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. 2021
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8486260/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34630748
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.procs.2021.09.102
_version_ 1784577712605626368
author Rusin, Tomasz M.
author_facet Rusin, Tomasz M.
author_sort Rusin, Tomasz M.
collection PubMed
description Robust method of short-term forecast of Covid-19 epidemic in small administrative units (districts) is proposed. By identifying similar sections of epidemic evolutions in the past it is possible to obtain short-term forecast of epidemic in given district. Examples of one and two-weeks forecasts for three cities in Poland during third epidemic wave (March and April 2021) are shown. Difference between epidemic evolutions in third wave and previous waves caused by Covid B.1.1.7 UK variant is observed. Proposed algorithm allows one to manage epidemic locally by entering or releasing anti-Covid restrictions in groups of small administrative units.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-8486260
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2021
publisher The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V.
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-84862602021-10-04 Forecasts of Covid-19 evolution by nearest epidemic trajectories detection Rusin, Tomasz M. Procedia Comput Sci Article Robust method of short-term forecast of Covid-19 epidemic in small administrative units (districts) is proposed. By identifying similar sections of epidemic evolutions in the past it is possible to obtain short-term forecast of epidemic in given district. Examples of one and two-weeks forecasts for three cities in Poland during third epidemic wave (March and April 2021) are shown. Difference between epidemic evolutions in third wave and previous waves caused by Covid B.1.1.7 UK variant is observed. Proposed algorithm allows one to manage epidemic locally by entering or releasing anti-Covid restrictions in groups of small administrative units. The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. 2021 2021-10-01 /pmc/articles/PMC8486260/ /pubmed/34630748 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.procs.2021.09.102 Text en © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Rusin, Tomasz M.
Forecasts of Covid-19 evolution by nearest epidemic trajectories detection
title Forecasts of Covid-19 evolution by nearest epidemic trajectories detection
title_full Forecasts of Covid-19 evolution by nearest epidemic trajectories detection
title_fullStr Forecasts of Covid-19 evolution by nearest epidemic trajectories detection
title_full_unstemmed Forecasts of Covid-19 evolution by nearest epidemic trajectories detection
title_short Forecasts of Covid-19 evolution by nearest epidemic trajectories detection
title_sort forecasts of covid-19 evolution by nearest epidemic trajectories detection
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8486260/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34630748
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.procs.2021.09.102
work_keys_str_mv AT rusintomaszm forecastsofcovid19evolutionbynearestepidemictrajectoriesdetection

Ejemplares similares