Die Überdeckung der Next Generation EU-Schulden im neuen EU-Eigenmittelbeschluss: Ausmaß und Haftungskonsequenzen

This analysis addresses the guarantees for the EU debt to be raised under the new EU own resource decision to finance the Corona reconstruction plan Next Generation EU (NGEU). Member States have accepted the possibility of additional own resource payments up to 0.6 percent of their gross national income (GNI) until the year 2058. Simulations show that this 0.6 percentage point extra margin represents a very large excess coverage which creates a repayment potential far above the magnitude needed to redeem the NGEU debt. This holds even under very conservative assumptions on GNI growth. The study also sheds light on the signals, incentives, and liability consequences arising from this far-reaching excess coverage of the Corona debt. The extensive excess repayment capacity of the EU budget over the coming decades can be understood as a signal that a new EU debt window can be rapidly used in the coming decades whenever it is needed. The paper also highlights another consequence of this overfunding for the maximum liability of the German federal budget for NGEU debt. The calculations show that this liability is effectively unlimited and thus fundamentally different from the type of partial liability that was accepted for the European Stability Mechanism.