Genomic prediction for fusiform rust disease incidence in a large cloned population of Pinus taeda

In this study, 723 Pinus taeda L. (loblolly pine) clonal varieties genotyped with 16920 SNP markers were used to evaluate genomic selection for fusiform rust disease caused by the fungus Cronartium quercuum f. sp. fusiforme. The 723 clonal varieties were from five full-sib families. They were a subset of a larger population (1831 clonal varieties), field-tested across 26 locations in the southeast US. Ridge regression, Bayes B, and Bayes Cπ models were implemented to study marker-trait associations and estimate predictive ability for selection. A cross-validation scenario based on a random sampling of 80% of the clonal varieties for the model building had higher (0.71–0.76) prediction accuracies of genomic estimated breeding values compared with family and within-family cross-validation scenarios. Random sampling within families for model training to predict genomic estimated breeding values of the remaining progenies within each family produced accuracies between 0.38 and 0.66. Using four families out of five for model training was not successful. The results showed the importance of genetic relatedness between the training and validation sets. Bayesian whole-genome regression models detected three QTL with large effects on the disease outcome, explaining 54% of the genetic variation in the trait. The significance of QTL was validated with GWAS while accounting for the population structure and polygenic effect. The odds of disease incidence for heterozygous AB genotypes were 10.7 and 12.1 times greater than the homozygous AA genotypes for SNP11965 and SNP6347 loci, respectively. Genomic selection for fusiform rust disease incidence could be effective in P. taeda breeding. Markers with large effects could be fit as fixed covariates to increase the prediction accuracies, provided that their effects are validated further.