Oral steroids for reducing kidney scarring in young children with febrile urinary tract infections: the contribution of Bayesian analysis to a randomized trial not reaching its intended sample size

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to evaluate the effect of oral dexamethasone in reducing kidney scars in infants with a first febrile urinary tract infection (UTI). METHODS: Children aged between 2 and 24 months with their first presumed UTI, at high risk for kidney scarring based on procalcitonin levels (≥1 ng/mL), were randomly assigned to receive dexamethasone in addition to routine care or routine care only. Kidney scars were identified by kidney scan at 6 months after initial UTI. Projections of enrollment and follow-up completion showed that the intended sample size could not be reached before funding and time to complete the study ran out. An amendment to the protocol was approved to conduct a Bayesian analysis. RESULTS: We randomized 48 children, of whom 42 had a UTI and 18 had outcome kidney scans (instead of 128 planned). Kidney scars were found in 0/7 and 2/11 patients in the treatment and control groups respectively. The probability that dexamethasone could prevent kidney scarring was 99% in the setting of an informative prior probability distribution (which fully incorporated in the final inference the information on treatment effect provided by previous studies) and 98% in the low-informative scenario (which discounted the prior literature information by 50%). The probabilities that dexamethasone could reduce kidney scar formation by up to 20% were 61% and 53% in the informative and low-informative scenario, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Dexamethasone is highly likely to reduce kidney scarring, with a more than 50% probability to reduce kidney scars by up to 20%. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: EudraCT number: 2013-000388-10; registered in 2013 (prospectively registered) GRAPHICAL ABSTRACT: [Figure: see text] SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00467-021-05117-5.