Population viability analysis of the endangered Dupont’s Lark Chersophilus duponti in Spain

Steppe lands in Europe are critically affected by habitat loss and fragmentation, and hold over 50% of IUCN Red List bird species in Europe. Dupont’s Lark is a threatened steppe-specialist passerine whose European geographic range is restricted to Spain, with less than 2000 pairs and an annual population decline of − 3.9%. Its strongly fragmented habitat leads to a metapopulation structure in the Iberian Peninsula that includes 24 populations and 100 subpopulations. We present an updated Population Viability Analysis based on the latest scientific knowledge regarding distribution, population trends, breeding biology and connectivity. Our results predict metapopulation extinction in 2–3 decades, through a centripetal contraction process from the periphery to the core. The probability of extinction in 20 years was 84.2%, which supports its relisting to Endangered in Spain following IUCN criteria. We carried out a sensitivity analysis showing that some parameters, especially productivity and survival of adults and juveniles, help to increase metapopulation viability. Simulation of management scenarios showed that habitat restoration in a subset of key subpopulations had a positive effect on the overall metapopulation persistence. Translocations of a limited number of individuals from source to recipient locations may help to rescue the most endangered subpopulations without reducing the global time to extinction of the metapopulation. In addition, we identified the most critical areas for action, where local populations of the species are prone to extinction. This work suggests that the viability of the Dupont’s Lark metapopulation could be improved and its risk of extinction reduced if urgent and localized conservation measures are applied. In the short-term, habitat loss and fragmentation due to ploughing, reforestation and infrastructures implementation in Dupont’s Lark habitat must be avoided. Habitat restoration and translocations could help to avoid imminent extinction of critical subpopulations. Restoration of extensive grazing is recommended as the most effective way to achieve the long-term conservation of Dupont’s Lark in Spain.