Methods for the inclusion of real-world evidence in network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Network Meta-Analysis (NMA) is a key component of submissions to reimbursement agencies world-wide, especially when there is limited direct head-to-head evidence for multiple technologies from randomised controlled trials (RCTs). Many NMAs include only data from RCTs. However, real-world evidence (RWE) is also becoming widely recognised as a valuable source of clinical data. This study aims to investigate methods for the inclusion of RWE in NMA and its impact on the level of uncertainty around the effectiveness estimates, with particular interest in effectiveness of fingolimod. METHODS: A range of methods for inclusion of RWE in evidence synthesis were investigated by applying them to an illustrative example in relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS). A literature search to identify RCTs and RWE evaluating treatments in RRMS was conducted. To assess the impact of inclusion of RWE on the effectiveness estimates, Bayesian hierarchical and adapted power prior models were applied. The effect of the inclusion of RWE was investigated by varying the degree of down weighting of this part of evidence by the use of a power prior. RESULTS: Whilst the inclusion of the RWE led to an increase in the level of uncertainty surrounding effect estimates in this example, this depended on the method of inclusion adopted for the RWE. ‘Power prior’ NMA model resulted in stable effect estimates for fingolimod yet increasing the width of the credible intervals with increasing weight given to RWE data. The hierarchical NMA models were effective in allowing for heterogeneity between study designs, however, this also increased the level of uncertainty. CONCLUSION: The ‘power prior’ method for the inclusion of RWE in NMAs indicates that the degree to which RWE is taken into account can have a significant impact on the overall level of uncertainty. The hierarchical modelling approach further allowed for accommodating differences between study types. Consequently, further work investigating both empirical evidence for biases associated with individual RWE studies and methods of elicitation from experts on the extent of such biases is warranted. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12874-021-01399-3.