Association of Infectious Mononucleosis in Childhood and Adolescence With Risk for a Subsequent Multiple Sclerosis Diagnosis Among Siblings

IMPORTANCE: Epstein-Barr virus and its acute manifestation, infectious mononucleosis (IM), are associated with an increased risk of multiple sclerosis (MS). Whether this association is confounded by susceptibility to infection is still debated. OBJECTIVE: To assess whether hospital-diagnosed IM during childhood, adolescence, or young adulthood is associated with subsequent MS diagnosis independent of shared familial factors. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This population–based cohort study used the Swedish Total Population Register to identify individuals born in Sweden from January 1, 1958, to December 31, 1994. Participants aged 20 years were followed up from January 1, 1978, to December 31, 2018, with a median follow-up of 15.38 (IQR, 8.68-23.55; range, 0.01-40.96) years. Data were analyzed from October 2020 to July 2021. EXPOSURE: Hospital-diagnosed IM before 25 years of age. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Diagnoses of MS from 20 years of age were identified. Risk of an MS diagnosis associated with IM in childhood (birth to 10 years of age), adolescence (11-19 years of age), and early adulthood (20-24 years of age [time-dependent variable]) were estimated using conventional and stratified (to address familial environmental or genetic confounding) Cox proportional hazards regression. RESULTS: Of the 2 492 980 individuals (1 312 119 men [52.63%] and 1 180 861 women [47.37%]) included, 5867 (0.24%) had an MS diagnosis from 20 years of age (median age, 31.50 [IQR, 26.78-37.54] years). Infectious mononucleosis in childhood (hazard ratio [HR], 1.98; 95% CI, 1.21-3.23) and adolescence (HR, 3.00; 95% CI, 2.48-3.63) was associated with an increased risk of an MS diagnosis that remained significant after controlling for shared familial factors in stratified Cox proportional hazards regression (HRs, 2.87 [95% CI, 1.44-5.74] and 3.19 [95% CI, 2.29-4.46], respectively). Infectious mononucleosis in early adulthood was also associated with risk of a subsequent MS diagnosis (HR, 1.89; 95% CI, 1.18-3.05), but this risk was attenuated and was not significant after controlling for shared familial factors (HR, 1.51; 95% CI, 0.82-2.76). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: These findings suggest that IM in childhood and particularly adolescence is a risk factor associated with a diagnosis of MS, independent of shared familial factors.