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Pandemics and Economic Growth: Evidence from the 1968 H3N2 Influenza
We evaluate the 1968 H3N2 Flu pandemic’s economic cost in a cross-section of 52 countries. Using excess mortality rates as a proxy for the country-specific severity of the pandemic, we find that the average mortality rate (0.0062% per pandemic wave) was associated with a decline in output of 2.4% ov...
Autores principales: | , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Springer International Publishing
2021
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8507505/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34661047 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s41885-021-00096-1 |
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author | Jinjarak, Yothin Noy, Ilan Ta, Quy |
author_facet | Jinjarak, Yothin Noy, Ilan Ta, Quy |
author_sort | Jinjarak, Yothin |
collection | PubMed |
description | We evaluate the 1968 H3N2 Flu pandemic’s economic cost in a cross-section of 52 countries. Using excess mortality rates as a proxy for the country-specific severity of the pandemic, we find that the average mortality rate (0.0062% per pandemic wave) was associated with a decline in output of 2.4% over the two pandemic waves. Our estimates also suggest the losses in consumption (-1.9%), investment (-1.2%), and productivity (-1.9%) over the two pandemic waves. The results are robust across regressions using alternative measures of mortality and output loss. The study adds to the current literature new empirical evidence on the economic consequences of the past pandemics in light of the potential impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic on productivity. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8507505 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | Springer International Publishing |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-85075052021-10-13 Pandemics and Economic Growth: Evidence from the 1968 H3N2 Influenza Jinjarak, Yothin Noy, Ilan Ta, Quy Econ Disaster Clim Chang Original Paper We evaluate the 1968 H3N2 Flu pandemic’s economic cost in a cross-section of 52 countries. Using excess mortality rates as a proxy for the country-specific severity of the pandemic, we find that the average mortality rate (0.0062% per pandemic wave) was associated with a decline in output of 2.4% over the two pandemic waves. Our estimates also suggest the losses in consumption (-1.9%), investment (-1.2%), and productivity (-1.9%) over the two pandemic waves. The results are robust across regressions using alternative measures of mortality and output loss. The study adds to the current literature new empirical evidence on the economic consequences of the past pandemics in light of the potential impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic on productivity. Springer International Publishing 2021-10-12 2022 /pmc/articles/PMC8507505/ /pubmed/34661047 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s41885-021-00096-1 Text en © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021 This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic. |
spellingShingle | Original Paper Jinjarak, Yothin Noy, Ilan Ta, Quy Pandemics and Economic Growth: Evidence from the 1968 H3N2 Influenza |
title | Pandemics and Economic Growth: Evidence from the 1968 H3N2 Influenza |
title_full | Pandemics and Economic Growth: Evidence from the 1968 H3N2 Influenza |
title_fullStr | Pandemics and Economic Growth: Evidence from the 1968 H3N2 Influenza |
title_full_unstemmed | Pandemics and Economic Growth: Evidence from the 1968 H3N2 Influenza |
title_short | Pandemics and Economic Growth: Evidence from the 1968 H3N2 Influenza |
title_sort | pandemics and economic growth: evidence from the 1968 h3n2 influenza |
topic | Original Paper |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8507505/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34661047 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s41885-021-00096-1 |
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