Impact of rising temperatures on the biomass of humid old-growth forests of the world

BACKGROUND: Understanding how warming influence above-ground biomass in the world’s forests is necessary for quantifying future global carbon budgets. A climate-driven decrease in future carbon stocks could dangerously strengthen climate change. Empirical methods for studying the temperature response of forests have important limitations, and modelling is needed to provide another perspective. Here we evaluate the impact of rising air temperature on the future above-ground biomass of old-growth forests using a model that explains well the observed current variation in the above-ground biomass over the humid lowland areas of the world based on monthly air temperature. RESULTS: Applying this model to the monthly air temperature data for 1970–2000 and monthly air temperature projections for 2081–2100, we found that the above-ground biomass of old-growth forests is expected to decrease everywhere in the humid lowland areas except boreal regions. The temperature-driven decrease is estimated at 41% in the tropics and at 29% globally. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that rising temperatures impact the above-ground biomass of old-growth forests dramatically. However, this impact could be mitigated by fertilization effects of increasing carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere and nitrogen deposition. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13021-021-00194-3.