Clinical Course and Outcome Patterns of Acute-on-chronic Liver Failure: A Multicenter Retrospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is acute decompensation of liver function in the setting of chronic liver disease, and characterized by high short-term mortality. In this study, we sought to investigate the clinical course of patients at specific time points, and to propose dynamic prognostic criteria. METHODS: We assessed the clinical course of 453 patients with ACLF during a 12-week follow-up period in this retrospective multicenter study. The clinical course of patients was defined as disease recovery, improvement, worsening or steady patterns based on the variation tendency in prothrombin activity (PTA) and total bilirubin (TB) at different time points. RESULTS: Resolution of PTA was observed in 231 patients (51%) at 12 weeks after the diagnosis of ACLF. Among the remaining patients, 66 (14.6%) showed improvement and 156 (34.4%) showed a steady or worsening course. In patients with resolved PTA, the clinical course of TB exhibited resolved pattern in 95.2%, improved in 3.9%, and steady or worse in 0.8%. Correspondingly, in patients with improved PTA, these values for TB were 28.8%, 27.3%, and 43.9%, respectively. In patients with steady or worsening PTA, these values for TB were 5.7%, 32.3%, and 65.6%, respectively. Dynamic prognostic criteria were developed by combining the clinical course of PTA/TB and the clinical outcomes at 4 and 12 weeks after diagnosis in ACLF patients. CONCLUSIONS: We propose the following dynamic prognostic criteria: rapid progression, slow progression, rapid recovery, slow recovery, and slow persistence, which lay the foundation for precise prediction of prognosis and the improvement of ACLF therapy.