The Prognostic Value of ctDNA and bTMB on Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors in Human Cancer

BACKGROUND: Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) levels and blood tumor mutation burden (bTMB) have a significant impact on the prognosis of tumor patients. However, their prognostic role in immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) in cancer patients is still unclear. METHODS: We used the Review Manager software (version 5.3) to perform a meta-analysis based on the published literature to explore the prognostic value of ctDNA and bTMB in patients receiving immunotherapy. We extracted the hazard ratios (HRs) of progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) for each included study and their respective 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and p-values for analysis. RESULTS: Thirteen studies were included in the meta-analysis. Higher ctDNA levels were significantly associated with shorter OS (HR = 3.35, 95%CI = 2.49–4.51, p < 0.00001) and PFS (HR = 3.28, 95%CI = 2.47–4.35, p < 0.00001). The results of ctDNA subgroup analysis showed that high posttreatment ctDNA levels significantly correlated with shorter OS in cancer patients receiving ICIs (HR = 5.09, 95%CI = 1.43–18.07, p = 0.01). Moreover, patients with ctDNA clearance had better OS (HR = 4.94, 95%CI = 2.96–8.26, p < 0.00001). Patients with high posttreatment ctDNA levels had shorter PFS (HR = 3.00, 95%CI = 2.02–4.46, p < 0.00001) and those with ctDNA clearance had longer PFS (HR = 4.61, 95%CI = 2.78–7.65, p < 0.00001). However, there was no statistically significant difference in the OS benefits between a high and a low bTMB after ICI therapy (HR = 0.68, 95%CI = 0.33–1.37, p = 0.28). CONCLUSIONS: The host immune system and tumor burden together determine whether cancer patients can benefit from ICI therapy. Our systematic review and meta-analysis revealed for the first time that the levels of pretreatment and posttreatment ctDNA and the clearance of ctDNA can independently be used as prognostic factors for antitumor immunotherapy, while bTMB cannot. In conclusion, ctDNA levels have great potential as an assistant tool for radiological assessments to make clinical therapeutic decisions. The prognostic utility of bTMB still requires further exploration.