Prediction of readmission in patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease within one year after treatment and discharge

BACKGROUND: To investigate the risk factors and construct a logistic model and an extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) model to compare the predictive performances for readmission in acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) patients within one year. METHODS: In total, 636 patients with AECOPD were recruited and divided into readmission group (n = 449) and non-readmission group (n = 187). Backward stepwise regression method was used to analyze the risk factors for readmission. Data were divided into training set and testing set at a ratio of 7:3. Variables with statistical significance were included in the logistic model and variables with P < 0.1 were included in the XGBoost model, and receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves were plotted. RESULTS: Patients with acute exacerbations within the previous 1 year [odds ratio (OR) = 4.086, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.723–6.133, P < 0.001), long-acting β agonist (LABA) application (OR = 4.550, 95% CI 1.587–13.042, P = 0.005), inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) application (OR = 0.227, 95% CI 0.076–0.672, P = 0.007), glutamic-pyruvic transaminase (ALT) level (OR = 0.985, 95% CI 0.971–0.999, P = 0.042), and total CAT score (OR = 1.091, 95% CI 1.048–1.136, P < 0.001) were associated with the risk of readmission. The AUC value of the logistic model was 0.743 (95% CI 0.692–0.795) in the training set and 0.699 (95% CI 0.617–0.780) in the testing set. The AUC value of XGBoost model was 0.814 (95% CI 0.812–0.815) in the training set and 0.722 (95% CI 0.720–0.725) in the testing set. CONCLUSIONS: The XGBoost model showed a better predictive value in predicting the risk of readmission within one year in the AECOPD patients than the logistic regression model. The findings of our study might help identify patients with a high risk of readmission within one year and provide timely treatment to prevent the reoccurrence of AECOPD. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12890-021-01692-3.