Long-term and pathological outcomes of low- and intermediate-risk prostate cancer after radical prostatectomy: implications for active surveillance

PURPOSE: The safety of active surveillance (AS) in favorable intermediate-risk (FIR) prostate cancer (PCa) remains uncertain. To provide guidance on clinical decision-making, we examined long-term and pathological outcomes of low-risk and intermediate-risk PCa patients after radical prostatectomy (RP). METHODS: The study involved 5693 patients diagnosed between 1994 and 2019 with low-risk, FIR, and unfavorable intermediate-risk (UIR) PCa (stratification according to the AUA guidelines) who underwent RP. Pathological outcomes were compared, and Kaplan–Meier analysis determined biochemical recurrence-free survival (BRFS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) at 5, 10, 15, and 20 years. Multiple Cox regression was used to simultaneously control for relevant confounders. RESULTS: Those at FIR had higher rates of upgrading and upstaging (12.8% vs. 7.2%, p < 0.001; 19.8% vs. 12.0%, p < 0.001) as well as pathological tumor and node stage (≥ pT3a: 18.8% vs. 11.6%, p < 0.001; pN1: 2.7% vs. 0.8%, p > 0.001) compared to patients at low risk. The 20-year BRFS was 69%, 65%, and 44% and the 20-year CSS was 98%, 95%, and 89% in low-risk, FIR, and UIR patients. On multiple Cox regression, FIR was not associated with a worse BRFS (HR 1.07, CI 0.87–1.32), UIR was associated with a worse BRFS (HR 1.49, CI 1.20–1.85). CONCLUSION: Patients at FIR had only slightly worse pathological and long-term outcomes compared to patients at low risk, whereas the difference compared to patients at UIR was large. This emphasizes AS in these patients as a possible treatment strategy in well-counseled patients. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00345-021-03717-2.