Quantifying patch‐specific seed dispersal and local population dynamics to estimate population spread of an endangered plant species

AIM: Habitat loss and fragmentation impose high extinction risk upon endangered plant species globally. For many endangered plant species, as the remnant habitats become smaller and more fragmented, it is vital to estimate the population spread rate of small patches in order to effectively manage and preserve them for potential future range expansion. However, population spread rate has rarely been quantified at the patch level to inform conservation strategies and management decisions. To close this gap, we quantify the patch‐specific seed dispersal and local population dynamics of Minuartia smejkalii, which is a critically endangered plant species endemic in the Czech Republic and is of urgent conservation concern. LOCATION: Želivka and Hrnčíře, Czechia. METHODS: We conducted demographic analyses using population projection matrices with long‐term demographic data and used an analytic mechanistic dispersal model to simulate seed dispersal. We then used information on local population dynamics and seed dispersal to estimate the population spread rate and compared the relative contributions of seed dispersal and population growth rate to the population spread rate. RESULTS: We found that although both seed dispersal and population growth rate in M. smejkalii were critically limited, the population spread rate depended more strongly on the maximal dispersal distance than on the population growth rate. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: We recommend conservationists to largely increase the dispersal distance of M. smejkalii. Generally, efforts made to increase seed dispersal ability could largely raise efficiency and effectiveness of conservation actions for critically endangered plant species.