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Facing an unfortunate trade-off: policy responses, lessons and spill-overs during the COVID-19 pandemic
Although COVID-19 emerged as a global shock, governments adopted non-pharmaceutical policy responses that were rather heterogeneous, depending on cultural and institutional characteristics. At the country level, the stringency of ‘lockdown’-type policies should be set to achieve the best possible tr...
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
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Elsevier B.V.
2021
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Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8525467/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34333351 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ehb.2021.101052 |
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author | Dragomirescu-Gaina, Catalin |
author_facet | Dragomirescu-Gaina, Catalin |
author_sort | Dragomirescu-Gaina, Catalin |
collection | PubMed |
description | Although COVID-19 emerged as a global shock, governments adopted non-pharmaceutical policy responses that were rather heterogeneous, depending on cultural and institutional characteristics. At the country level, the stringency of ‘lockdown’-type policies should be set to achieve the best possible trade-off between economic and fatality dynamics, obviously accounting for possible cross-border influences. To allow for policy learning, I assume that the first country implementing a policy initiative that is worth emulating must either get the best possible health or the best possible economic outcome. I propose a combination of sign and magnitude restrictions, embedded in a global VAR model, to identify idiosyncratic policy shocks that spill over and influence policy responses abroad. Once policy shocks are identified, I run a comparison exercise between two model specifications, i.e. with and without policy emulation. Within a given a sample, this methodology can be used to find when and where policy lessons can be identified. I find that, among 17 developed and developing countries, few can offer lessons based on their policy initiatives, but several others might get better trade-offs through policy emulation, although in reality this outcome is not guaranteed to have occurred. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8525467 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | Elsevier B.V. |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-85254672021-10-20 Facing an unfortunate trade-off: policy responses, lessons and spill-overs during the COVID-19 pandemic Dragomirescu-Gaina, Catalin Econ Hum Biol Article Although COVID-19 emerged as a global shock, governments adopted non-pharmaceutical policy responses that were rather heterogeneous, depending on cultural and institutional characteristics. At the country level, the stringency of ‘lockdown’-type policies should be set to achieve the best possible trade-off between economic and fatality dynamics, obviously accounting for possible cross-border influences. To allow for policy learning, I assume that the first country implementing a policy initiative that is worth emulating must either get the best possible health or the best possible economic outcome. I propose a combination of sign and magnitude restrictions, embedded in a global VAR model, to identify idiosyncratic policy shocks that spill over and influence policy responses abroad. Once policy shocks are identified, I run a comparison exercise between two model specifications, i.e. with and without policy emulation. Within a given a sample, this methodology can be used to find when and where policy lessons can be identified. I find that, among 17 developed and developing countries, few can offer lessons based on their policy initiatives, but several others might get better trade-offs through policy emulation, although in reality this outcome is not guaranteed to have occurred. Elsevier B.V. 2021-12 2021-07-27 /pmc/articles/PMC8525467/ /pubmed/34333351 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ehb.2021.101052 Text en © 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active. |
spellingShingle | Article Dragomirescu-Gaina, Catalin Facing an unfortunate trade-off: policy responses, lessons and spill-overs during the COVID-19 pandemic |
title | Facing an unfortunate trade-off: policy responses, lessons and spill-overs during the COVID-19 pandemic |
title_full | Facing an unfortunate trade-off: policy responses, lessons and spill-overs during the COVID-19 pandemic |
title_fullStr | Facing an unfortunate trade-off: policy responses, lessons and spill-overs during the COVID-19 pandemic |
title_full_unstemmed | Facing an unfortunate trade-off: policy responses, lessons and spill-overs during the COVID-19 pandemic |
title_short | Facing an unfortunate trade-off: policy responses, lessons and spill-overs during the COVID-19 pandemic |
title_sort | facing an unfortunate trade-off: policy responses, lessons and spill-overs during the covid-19 pandemic |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8525467/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34333351 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ehb.2021.101052 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT dragomirescugainacatalin facinganunfortunatetradeoffpolicyresponseslessonsandspilloversduringthecovid19pandemic |