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Burden of Thyroid Cancer From 1990 to 2019 and Projections of Incidence and Mortality Until 2039 in China: Findings From Global Burden of Disease Study

Projecting the burden of thyroid cancer (TC) over time provides essential information to effectively plan measures for its management and prevention. This research obtained data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study from between 1990 and 2019 to model how TC will affect China until 2039 by c...

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Autores principales: Cheng, Fang, Xiao, Juan, Shao, Chunchun, Huang, Fengyan, Wang, Lihua, Ju, Yanli, Jia, Hongying
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Frontiers Media S.A. 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8527095/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34690931
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fendo.2021.738213
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author Cheng, Fang
Xiao, Juan
Shao, Chunchun
Huang, Fengyan
Wang, Lihua
Ju, Yanli
Jia, Hongying
author_facet Cheng, Fang
Xiao, Juan
Shao, Chunchun
Huang, Fengyan
Wang, Lihua
Ju, Yanli
Jia, Hongying
author_sort Cheng, Fang
collection PubMed
description Projecting the burden of thyroid cancer (TC) over time provides essential information to effectively plan measures for its management and prevention. This research obtained data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study from between 1990 and 2019 to model how TC will affect China until 2039 by conducting the Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis. The number of new TC cases in China was 10,030 in 1990, 39,080 in 2019, and is projected to be 47,820 in 2039. This corresponds to 3,320, 7,240, and 4,160 deaths, respectively. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) cases increased from 103,490 in 1990 to 187,320 in 2019. The age-standardized rate (ASR) of incidence increased from 1.01 to 2.05 during 1990-2019 and was projected to increase to 3.37 per 100,000 person-years until 2039. The ASR of mortality (ASMR) remained stable during the study period and was projected to have a mild decline from 0.39 to 0.29/100,000 during 2020-2039. Although the ASMR in male patients has maintained increasing at a rate of 2.2% per year over the past 30 years, it is expected to decline at a rate of 1.07% per year in 2019-2039. The most significant increase in crude incidence occurred in people aged 45-65 from 1990 to 2019, however, this will shift into young people aged 10-24 from 2020 to 2039. In addition, the proportion of deaths and DALYs caused by obesity increased from 1990 to 2019 and affected men more than women. In conclusion, a substantial increase in counts of incidence of TC in China is projected over the next two decades, combined with the slightly declining mortality, indicating that rational health policies are needed in the future to cope with the increasing number of TC patients, especially among males and adolescents.
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spelling pubmed-85270952021-10-21 Burden of Thyroid Cancer From 1990 to 2019 and Projections of Incidence and Mortality Until 2039 in China: Findings From Global Burden of Disease Study Cheng, Fang Xiao, Juan Shao, Chunchun Huang, Fengyan Wang, Lihua Ju, Yanli Jia, Hongying Front Endocrinol (Lausanne) Endocrinology Projecting the burden of thyroid cancer (TC) over time provides essential information to effectively plan measures for its management and prevention. This research obtained data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study from between 1990 and 2019 to model how TC will affect China until 2039 by conducting the Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis. The number of new TC cases in China was 10,030 in 1990, 39,080 in 2019, and is projected to be 47,820 in 2039. This corresponds to 3,320, 7,240, and 4,160 deaths, respectively. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) cases increased from 103,490 in 1990 to 187,320 in 2019. The age-standardized rate (ASR) of incidence increased from 1.01 to 2.05 during 1990-2019 and was projected to increase to 3.37 per 100,000 person-years until 2039. The ASR of mortality (ASMR) remained stable during the study period and was projected to have a mild decline from 0.39 to 0.29/100,000 during 2020-2039. Although the ASMR in male patients has maintained increasing at a rate of 2.2% per year over the past 30 years, it is expected to decline at a rate of 1.07% per year in 2019-2039. The most significant increase in crude incidence occurred in people aged 45-65 from 1990 to 2019, however, this will shift into young people aged 10-24 from 2020 to 2039. In addition, the proportion of deaths and DALYs caused by obesity increased from 1990 to 2019 and affected men more than women. In conclusion, a substantial increase in counts of incidence of TC in China is projected over the next two decades, combined with the slightly declining mortality, indicating that rational health policies are needed in the future to cope with the increasing number of TC patients, especially among males and adolescents. Frontiers Media S.A. 2021-10-06 /pmc/articles/PMC8527095/ /pubmed/34690931 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fendo.2021.738213 Text en Copyright © 2021 Cheng, Xiao, Shao, Huang, Wang, Ju and Jia https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
spellingShingle Endocrinology
Cheng, Fang
Xiao, Juan
Shao, Chunchun
Huang, Fengyan
Wang, Lihua
Ju, Yanli
Jia, Hongying
Burden of Thyroid Cancer From 1990 to 2019 and Projections of Incidence and Mortality Until 2039 in China: Findings From Global Burden of Disease Study
title Burden of Thyroid Cancer From 1990 to 2019 and Projections of Incidence and Mortality Until 2039 in China: Findings From Global Burden of Disease Study
title_full Burden of Thyroid Cancer From 1990 to 2019 and Projections of Incidence and Mortality Until 2039 in China: Findings From Global Burden of Disease Study
title_fullStr Burden of Thyroid Cancer From 1990 to 2019 and Projections of Incidence and Mortality Until 2039 in China: Findings From Global Burden of Disease Study
title_full_unstemmed Burden of Thyroid Cancer From 1990 to 2019 and Projections of Incidence and Mortality Until 2039 in China: Findings From Global Burden of Disease Study
title_short Burden of Thyroid Cancer From 1990 to 2019 and Projections of Incidence and Mortality Until 2039 in China: Findings From Global Burden of Disease Study
title_sort burden of thyroid cancer from 1990 to 2019 and projections of incidence and mortality until 2039 in china: findings from global burden of disease study
topic Endocrinology
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8527095/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34690931
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fendo.2021.738213
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