Screening and discrimination of optimal prognostic genes for pancreatic cancer based on a prognostic prediction model

The prognosis of pancreatic cancer is poor because patients are usually asymptomatic in the early stage and the early diagnostic rate is low. Therefore, in this study, we aimed to identify potential prognosis-related genes in pancreatic cancer to improve diagnosis and the outcome of patients. The mRNA expression profile data from The Cancer Genome Atlas database and GSE79668, GSE62452, and GSE28735 datasets from Gene Expression Omnibus were downloaded. The prognosis-relevant genes and clinical factors were analyzed using Cox regression analysis and the optimal gene sets were screened using the Cox proportional model. Next, the Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used to evaluate the relationship between risk grouping and patient prognosis. Finally, an optimal gene-based prognosis prediction model was constructed and validated using a test dataset to discriminate the model accuracy and reliability. The results showed that 325 expression variable genes were identified, and 48 prognosis-relevant genes and three clinical factors, including lymph node stage (pathologic N), new tumor, and targeted molecular therapy were preliminarily obtained. In addition, a gene set containing 16 optimal genes was identified and included FABP6, MAL, KIF19, and REG4, which were significantly associated with the prognosis of pancreatic cancer. Moreover, a prognosis prediction model was constructed and validated to be relatively accurate and reliable. In conclusion, a gene set consisting of 16 prognosis-related genes was identified and a prognosis prediction model was constructed, which is expected to be applicable in the clinical diagnosis and treatment guidance of pancreatic cancer in the future.